基于层次分析——模糊综合评价法的陆上溢油环境风险评价：以綦江为例

Environmental Risk Assessment of Onshore Oil Spill Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process-Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation: A Case Study of Qijiang

摘要: 本文以陆上输油管道穿越河流段为研究对象，从管道失效易发性、溢油扩散性、环境敏感性和防护有效性四个方面构建评价指标体系，采用层次分析法确定各级指标权重，并结合模糊综合评价方法，建立了陆上输油管道穿越段溢油环境风险评价模型。该模型能够综合反映不同影响因素对溢油环境风险的贡献程度，为陆上输油管道溢油风险的科学评估与防控提供方法支撑和决策依据。此外，本文选取綦江输油管道穿越段作为实例，对其溢油环境风险等级进行评价。结果表明，该穿越段溢油环境风险等级为III级，属于中等风险水平，验证了所建评价模型的可行性与适用性。研究成果可为陆上输油管道溢油事故的风险防范与应急管理提供参考。

Abstract: This study focuses on leakage risk assessment for river-crossing sections of onshore oil pipelines. An evaluation index system was established from four aspects: pipeline failure susceptibility, oil spill diffusion potential, environmental sensitivity, and protection effectiveness. The Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to determine the weights of the evaluation indicators, and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was applied to develop an environmental risk assessment model for oil spills at onshore pipeline river-crossing sections. The model reflects the contribution of different factors to oil spill environmental risk and provides technical support for the scientific assessment and control of oil spill risks in onshore oil pipeline systems. The river-crossing section of the Qijiang oil pipeline was selected as a case study to evaluate its oil spill environmental risk level. The results indicate that the risk level of this section is classified as Level III, corresponding to a medium-risk category. This confirms the feasibility and applicability of the proposed evaluation model. The findings provide a technical basis for risk prevention and emergency management of oil spill incidents in onshore oil pipeline systems.