广东省2025年5月一次大范围暴雨天气过程分析

Analysis of a Large-Scale Rainstorm Weather Process in Guangdong Province in May 2025

摘要: 本文使用美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)提供的再分析数据集，以及由中国气象局建立的“天擎系统”和气象大数据云平台提供的降水量和极大风速等实况数据集，从降水实况、环流形势、水汽条件、动力条件、热力条件、不稳定能量等方面，诊断分析2025年5月17~20日发生在广东地区的强降水天气过程。研究表明：本次强降水天气过程伴有雷暴、短时强降水等天气现象，其特点是持续时间长，范围广，破坏力大以及强度大；环流形势方面，本次强降水过程为冷暖空气交汇，受空中槽线和地面锋面系统过境共同影响，为环流形势的发生和发展提供了有利条件；在水汽条件上，由于广东地区处于副高外围，大量来自孟加拉湾的暖湿气流和我国南海地区向降水地区输送，水汽条件对降水的发生和发展较为有利；动力状况上，强降水中心区域，广东阳西县上空垂直运动较强，中低层动量频繁交换，为持续强降水提供了较好的动力状况；从热力条件上看，广东大部分地区高能高湿不稳定的条件长时间维持，为形成和发展强对流天气进一步提供了较为有利的热力条件；在不稳定能量方面，广东西部大部分地区和西北部K指数偏大，显示上述地区上空积聚了大量的不稳定能量，且呈上干下湿的状态，对持续发展的强对流天气过程有利。

Abstract: This paper uses the reanalysis data set provided by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), as well as the actual data sets such as precipitation and maximum wind speed provided by the “Tianqing System” established by the China Meteorological Administration and the meteorological big data cloud platform. From the aspects of precipitation, circulation situation, water vapor condition, dynamic condition, thermal condition and unstable energy, the heavy precipitation weather process occurred in Guangdong on May 17~20, 2025 was diagnosed and analyzed. The research shows that this heavy precipitation weather process is accompanied by thunderstorms, short-term heavy precipitation and other weather phenomena, which are characterized by long duration, wide range, great destructive power and great intensity. In terms of circulation situation, the heavy precipitation process is the intersection of cold and warm air, which is affected by the air trough line and the ground frontal system, which provides favorable conditions for the occurrence and development of the circulation situation. In terms of water vapor conditions, due to the Guangdong area is located in the periphery of the subtropical high, a large number of warm and humid air flows from the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea area are transported to the precipitation area, and the water vapor conditions are more favorable for the occurrence and development of precipitation. In terms of dynamic conditions, in the central area of heavy precipitation, the vertical movement over Yangxi County, Guangdong Province is strong, and the momentum in the middle and lower layers is frequently exchanged, which provides a good dynamic condition for continuous heavy precipitation. From the perspective of thermal conditions, the unstable conditions of high energy and high humidity in most parts of Guangdong have been maintained for a long time, which further provides more favorable thermal conditions for the formation and development of strong convective weather. In terms of unstable energy, the K index in most parts of western Guangdong and northwestern Guangdong is too large, indicating that a large amount of unstable energy is accumulated over the above areas, and it is dry in the upper and wet in the lower, which is beneficial to the continuous development of strong convective weather processes.