电子商务发展与城市数字技术创新

E-Commerce Development and Urban Digital Technology Innovation

摘要: 本文基于2012~2022年中国279个地级及以上城市的面板数据，以国家电子商务示范城市设立为准自然实验，运用双重机器学习模型系统评估了电子商务发展对城市数字技术创新的政策效应。研究发现，电子商务示范城市政策显著促进了城市数字技术创新水平的提升，该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明，电子商务发展主要通过促进高质量发明专利的申请与授权来推动城市数字技术创新，而对实用新型专利的影响不显著，说明电商政策在提升创新“量”的同时更加注重创新“质”的提升。本研究为理解数字经济时代下电子商务与城市创新之间的内在联系提供了经验证据，也为地方政府优化电商政策、推动高质量创新提供了决策参考。

Abstract: This study employs panel data from 279 Chinese prefecture-level and above cities spanning 2012~2022. Utilizing the establishment of national e-commerce demonstration cities as a quasi-natural experiment, a double machine learning model is applied to systematically evaluate the policy effect of e-commerce development on urban digital technology innovation. The findings reveal that the e-commerce demonstration city policy significantly promotes the level of urban digital technology innovation, a conclusion that remains robust after a series of rigorous tests. Mechanism analysis indicates that e-commerce development primarily drives urban digital technology innovation by fostering the application and grant of high-quality invention patents, while its impact on utility model patents is insignificant. This suggests that the e-commerce policy enhances not only the “quantity” but, more importantly, the “quality” of innovation. This research provides empirical evidence for understanding the intrinsic link between e-commerce and urban innovation in the digital economy era, and offers decision-making references for local governments to optimize e-commerce policies and promote high-quality innovation.