融合事故类型与频次的高速公路交通风险评估方法研究

Research on Highway Traffic Risk Assessment Method Integrating Accident Types and Frequencies

摘要: 为评估高速公路交通事故风险特征，本研究提出一种融合事故类型风险程度与频次的风险评估方法，并以某省事故数据为例分析其时空特征。首先，构建涵盖事故清障时间、清障类型、车辆数目以及类型的评估指标体系，采用熵权法确定不同事故类型(如侧翻、追尾等)的风险系数；其次，以单位路段或时间长度为基准，基于不同交通事故类型风险系数和频次，采用线性加权方法确定综合风险值；最后，采用K-means聚类方法划分风险等级，探究时空分布规律。结果表明，侧翻事故的风险最高(0.735)，追尾(0.657)和自燃事故(0.540)次之；空间上，弯道中高风险比例高于直道，坡度越大高风险占比越低；时间上，白天的交通事故风险高于夜间和凌晨。该研究方法以易获取的事故处理和车辆数据为基础，为高速公路运营部门提供了一种高效可行的风险识别工具，有助于提升交通安全管理决策水平。

Abstract: To assess the risk characteristics of expressway traffic accidents, this study proposes a risk assessment method that integrates the risk degree and frequency of accident types, and takes the accident data of a certain province as an example to analyze its spatio-temporal characteristics. Firstly, an evaluation index system covering accident clearance time, clearance type, number of vehicles and types is constructed. The entropy weight method is adopted to determine the risk coefficients of different accident types (such as rollover, rear-end collision, etc.). Secondly, taking the unit road section or time length as the benchmark, based on the risk coefficients and frequencies of different types of traffic accidents, the comprehensive risk value is determined by using the linear weighting method. Finally, the K-means clustering method is adopted to classify the risk levels and explore the spatio-temporal distribution patterns. The results show that the risk of rollover accidents is the highest (0.735), followed by rear-end collisions (0.657) and spontaneous combustion accidents (0.540). Spatially, the proportion of high-risk sections in curves is higher than that in straight sections, and the greater the slope, the lower the proportion of high-risk sections. In terms of time, the risk of traffic accidents during the day is higher than that at night and in the early hours of the morning. This research method, based on easily accessible accident handling and vehicle data, provides an efficient and feasible risk identification tool for highway operation departments, which is conducive to improving the decision-making level of traffic safety management.