国际贸易竞争与格局演变对全球产业链重构的影响

The Impact of International Trade Competition and Pattern Evolution on the Restructuring of Global Industrial Chains

摘要: 国际贸易竞争与格局演变深刻改变全球经贸格局，对全球产业链重构产生显著影响。本文基于世界投入产出数据库(WIOD 2023版)、亚洲开发银行多区域投入产出表(ADB MRIO)、经合组织投入产出数据库(OECD ICIO)及联合国商品贸易统计数据库(UN Comtrade)等权威数据源，运用多区域投入产出(MRIO)、偏离–份额(SSM)及灰色关联度(GRA)模型，系统分析2013~2023年主要贸易伙伴间出口国内增加值(DVA)动态演变、分行业替代效应、中国制造业竞争力时空变化及驱动因素。研究发现，国际贸易摩擦与政策变动推动全球产业链从效率优先转向安全与韧性优先，中国对主要贸易伙伴出口DVA呈波动下滑态势，部分新兴经济体替代效应凸显；中国产业链竞争力呈现结构性分化，传统劳动密集型行业优势弱化，汽车行业借新能源转型实现突破。汇率波动、替代经济体成本优势等是核心驱动因素。基于此，从产业、宏观政策、企业层面提出差异化应对策略，为中国构建韧性更强的全球产业链体系、提升在全球经贸治理中的规则制定影响力提供理论与实践参考。

Abstract: International trade competition and pattern evolution have profoundly changed the global economic and trade landscape and exerted a significant impact on the restructuring of global industrial chains. Based on authoritative data sources such as World Input-Output Database (WIOD 2023), Asian Development Bank Multi-Regional Input-Output Table (ADB MRIO), OECD ICIO Database and UN Comtrade Database, this paper systematically analyzes the dynamic evolution of export domestic value added (DVA) among major trading partners, the industry-level substitution effects, the spatiotemporal changes and driving factors of China’s manufacturing competitiveness from 2013 to 2023, by using multi-regional input-output (MRIO), shift-share method (SSM) and grey relational analysis (GRA) models. The study finds that international trade frictions and policy changes have driven the global industrial chain to shift from “efficiency first” to “security and resilience first”. China’s DVA in exports to major trading partners shows a fluctuating downward trend, while the substitution effect of some emerging economies has become prominent. The competitiveness of China’s industrial chain presents structural differentiation: the advantages of traditional labor-intensive industries have weakened, while the automotive industry has achieved breakthroughs through the transformation of new energy. Exchange rate fluctuations and the cost advantages of substitute economies are the core driving factors. Accordingly, differentiated coping strategies are proposed from the industrial, macro-policy and enterprise levels, providing theoretical and practical references for China to build a more resilient global industrial chain system and enhance its influence on rule-making in global economic and trade governance.