基于职业与收入双路径的代际流动性研究

Research on Intergenerational Mobility Based on Dual Paths of Occupation and Income

摘要: 本文聚焦于中国代际流动的“职业–收入”双路径机制，分析了在2023~2025年新一轮政策与数字经济浪潮中，传统的父辈资本影响与新兴的数字技术赋能如何重塑社会流动格局。研究指出，尽管“十二年免费教育”显著提升了教育公平性，降低了学历通胀带来的劣势，但升学后的“岗位上升”与“收入溢价”之间仍存在显著断裂，形成了职业晋升难以兑现收入红利的“分治”格局。数字技术虽通过降低信息不对称、重塑技能需求和创建新型就业形态，为农村和弱势群体提供了跨越传统壁垒的渠道，但也存在“数字鸿沟”与“表层流动”风险，可能在特定阈值下加剧不平等。文章主张，未来政策应从单一的“学历通胀”治理转向“岗位–报酬”联动治理，打破城乡与职业壁垒，并在数字化进程中警惕“数字代际转移”风险，以实现真正的代际向上流动。

Abstract: This paper focuses on the “occupation-income” dual-path mechanism of intergenerational mobility in China, analyzing how traditional parental capital influence and emerging digital technology empowerment reshape the social mobility pattern amid the new wave of policies and digital economy from 2023 to 2025. The study points out that although the “12-year free education” has significantly improved educational equity and reduced disadvantages brought by academic inflation, there is still a significant gap between “position advancement” and “income premium” after further education, forming a “divide and rule” pattern where career advancement fails to deliver income dividends. Although digital technology provides rural and disadvantaged groups with channels to overcome traditional barriers by reducing information asymmetry, reshaping skill demands, and creating new forms of employment, it also poses risks of “digital divide” and “superficial mobility”, which may exacerbate inequality beyond a certain threshold. The article advocates that future policies should shift from a singular focus on “academic inflation” governance to a coordinated governance of “position-reward” linkage, breaking urban-rural and occupational barriers, and being vigilant about the risk of “digital intergenerational transfer” in the process of digitalization, in order to achieve genuine upward intergenerational mobility.