中国与西方国家膳食结构对温室气体排放的影响及疾病负担比较研究

A Comparative Analysis of the Impact of Dietary Structure on Greenhouse Gas Emissions and the Burden of Disease in China and the United States

摘要: 不同国家和地区的膳食结构存在显著差异，尤其东西方膳食，其饮食文化、食品消费模式和生产方式在很大程度上影响了全球环境和公共健康。本文以中国和以美国为代表的西方国家作为研究对象，对比了1961~2020年中美膳食结构变化对温室气体排放的影响及对人群健康效应的差异。结果表明，中国膳食结构正在向均衡化发展，美国膳食结构较为稳定，中国人均食物温室气体排放量从185.85 kg CO₂-eq增加到965.96 kg CO₂-eq，增长幅度达419.75%，而美国人均食物温室气体排放量变化较小，已经基本达到峰值，2020年排放值为1359.48 kg CO₂-eq，食物温室气体排放主要贡献来自于畜禽肉的消费。在研究期间由膳食风险引起的各种疾病的DALYs百分比在美国呈现下降趋势，而在中国则呈现上升趋势。此外，情景分析表明，在中国饮食完全西化的情景下，中国食物温室气体排放量大幅上升，这说明西方国家当前膳食结构不能满足中国环境和健康双友好的需要，中国需根据自身特点制定更加符合中国国情和居民情况的膳食指南。

Abstract: There are notable discrepancies in the dietary structures observed across different countries and regions, particularly between China and the US. The dietary cultures, food consumption patterns, and production methods prevalent in these two countries exert a considerable influence on the global environment and public health. This study employs China and the US as case studies to examine the disparate impacts of dietary structure shifts on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and population health outcomes between these two countries from 1961 to 2020. The results demonstrate that China’s dietary structure is evolving towards a more balanced composition, while the dietary structure of the US remains relatively stable. China’s food GHG emissions have increased significantly, from 185.85 kg CO₂ eq/cap/yr to 965.96 kg CO₂ eq/cap/yr, representing a 419.75% increase. In contrast, the US food GHG emissions have undergone less change and have reached a plateau, with a 2020 emission value of 1359.48 kg CO₂ eq/cap/yr. The primary contributor to food GHG emissions is the consumption of livestock and poultry meat. The percentage of Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) attributable to dietary risk factors exhibited a declining trajectory in the US and an upward trend in China during the study period. Furthermore, scenario analyses indicated that China’s food GHG emissions increased considerably under a scenario in which China’s diet was fully westernized. This suggests that the current dietary structure in the US is not suited to meet the environmental and health-related needs of China. Consequently, China must develop its dietary guidelines based on its unique circumstances and population’s needs.