基于AIS数据的东北亚货运港口航运网络复杂性分析

Complexity Analysis of Northeast Asian Freight Port and Shipping Network Based on AIS Data

摘要: 本文通过复杂网络理论与社区结构分析相结合的方法，以港口为节点构建东北亚货运航运网络，通过研究网络整体拓扑特征、节点中心性指标及社区划分结果，揭示东北亚海上贸易网络的空间格局及其沿线港口分布特征。该网络整体呈现“核心–支线”层级结构，度分布呈现显著长尾特征，尾部更符合受容量约束的重尾过程而非严格幂律分布，具有无标度倾向与典型“小世界”特性；同时，从节点中心性角度分析，东北亚沿线港口呈现明显的区域集聚与功能分化，其中上海港、宁波舟山港、釜山港、大连港及天津新港中心性值最高，构成网络的多功能核心枢纽；社区划分显示清晰的地理–功能模块化格局，主要分为中国东部沿海群、中国珠三角–南海群、日本港口群、韩国港口群，跨社区连接高度依赖少数桥梁节点。基于上述结构事实，东北亚海上贸易网络的优化与韧性提升应重点关注以中国东部沿海核心港群(上海–宁波舟山)为主导、联动韩国釜山及日本关西–关东港群的多核心协同格局，同时将重心置于跨板块通道冗余与替代连接能力的增强、以及区域内中小港口集疏运与服务能力的补齐，从而在维持高效联通的同时降低对少数关键枢纽与桥梁节点的结构性依赖并提升系统抗风险能力。

Abstract: This study integrates complex network theory with community-structure analysis to construct a Northeast Asian freight port and shipping network, in which ports are represented as nodes and inter-port connections are inferred from observed shipping linkages. By examining global topological properties, node-level centrality metrics, and community partitions, we characterize the spatial organization of the Northeast Asian maritime trade network and the distributional patterns of ports along major shipping corridors. The resulting network exhibits a pronounced “core-feeder” hierarchical architecture. Its degree distribution is strongly right-skewed with a clear long tail; the tail is more consistent with a capacity-limited heavy-tailed process than with a strict power-law, while still displaying scale-free-like heterogeneity and a canonical small-world structure. Centrality analysis further reveals marked regional clustering and functional differentiation among ports: Shanghai, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Busan, Dalian, and Tianjin Xingang attain the highest centrality values and jointly constitute a set of multifunctional core hubs. Community detection identifies a clear geo-functional modular pattern, broadly separating the network into an East China coastal cluster, a Pearl River Delta-South China coastal cluster, a Japan port cluster, and a Korea port cluster; inter-community connectivity is highly concentrated in a small number of key cross-community connector nodes. Building on these structural findings, efforts to enhance the performance and resilience of the Northeast Asian maritime trade network should prioritize a multi-core coordination configuration anchored by the East China coastal hub system (Shanghai-Ningbo-Zhoushan) and closely coupled with Busan as well as the Kansai-Kanto port systems in Japan. At the same time, emphasis should be placed on strengthening inter-module corridor redundancy and alternative routing capacity, and on improving hinterland access, collection-distribution systems, and service capabilities of small and medium-sized ports, thereby sustaining efficient connectivity while reducing structural dependence on a limited set of critical hubs and connector nodes and ultimately enhancing network-wide robustness to disruptions.