社会保障视角下人口老龄化对区域经济增长的影响研究——以河南省为例

The Impact of Population Aging on Regional Economic Growth from the Perspective of Social Security—A Case Study of Henan Province

摘要: 自20世纪70年代起，我国人均预期寿命提高与计划生育政策的推行共同促使生育率显著下降，人口老龄化进程提前加速。在当前河南省低出生率、高抚养比的人口结构背景下，若低生育趋势持续，老龄化问题将进一步加剧，并对经济增长带来更为严峻的挑战。基于社会保障视角，本文考察了2005~2023年河南省人口老龄化与地区经济增长之间的关系。通过面板回归模型分析发现，人口老龄化对经济发展具有明显的抑制效应。机制检验表明，当老龄化程度跨越最优门槛值后，社会保障对经济增长的促进作用将减弱，反映出老龄化对经济发展的负面效应逐步凸显。据此，本文从社会保障制度完善、生育政策优化、人口素质提升、科技进步以及社会保障支出适度增加等方面提出政策建议，以缓解老龄化对区域经济发展的不利影响，助力河南省经济实现持续健康发展。

Abstract: Since the 1970s, rising life expectancy and the implementation of family planning policies in China have led to a notable decline in fertility rates and an accelerated onset of population aging. Against the background of a low birth rate and high dependency ratio in Henan Province, the persistence of low fertility levels is expected to intensify population aging and exert more adverse effects on economic growth. From the perspective of social security, this study examines the relationship between population age structure and regional economic growth in Henan Province during 2005~2023. Using a panel regression model, we find that population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on economic development. Mechanism analysis shows that once the degree of aging exceeds an optimal threshold, the positive impact of social security on economic growth diminishes, indicating that the negative influence of aging becomes increasingly evident. Accordingly, this paper proposes policy recommendations aimed at improving the social security system, optimizing fertility policies, enhancing population quality, promoting technological progress, and appropriately increasing social security expenditures, so as to mitigate the challenges of aging and support sustainable economic development in Henan Province.