基于MaxEnt模型预测中国水晶兰潜在适生区

Predicting the Potential Suitable Habitat of Monotropa uniflora L. in China Based on the MaxEnt Model

摘要: 水晶兰(Monotropa uniflora L.)作为一种特殊的菌异养植物，对生境变化极为敏感，且难以人工迁地保护。在全球气候变暖背景下，明确其在中国的潜在地理分布及其对未来气候变化的响应特征，对于该物种的野生资源保护与生境管理具有重要意义。本研究利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和ArcGIS，预测当前气候条件下水晶兰在中国的潜在适生区，并预测了未来(2021~2080年)在SSP126、SSP245和SSP585三种气候情景下的适生区时空演变格局及质心迁移路径。结果表明：影响水晶兰分布的主导环境因子为气候因子，其中降水是影响其分布最显著的因素；当前水晶兰主要集中在中国秦岭–淮河一线以南的地区；在未来三种气候情景中，水晶兰适生区整体呈扩张趋势，质心整体向高纬度和高海拔方向迁移。同时，水晶兰的分布除受气候主导外，还受到其菌异养生态机制的严格限制。研究结果为该物种的保护规划提供了理论指导，并为未来结合生物互作的精准预测指明方向。

Abstract: Monotropa uniflora L., as a unique myco-heterotrophic plant, is extremely sensitive to habitat changes and difficult to conserve through ex-situ cultivation. In the context of global warming, clarifying its potential geographic distribution in China and its response characteristics to future climate change is of great significance for the conservation of its wild resources and habitat management. This study used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to predict the potential suitable habitat of Monotropa uniflora L. in China under current climatic conditions, and projected the spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns and centroid migration paths of its suitable habitat under three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) from 2021 to 2080. The results showed that climatic factors were the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of Monotropa uniflora L., among which precipitation was the most significant factor. Currently, Monotropa uniflora L. is mainly concentrated in the regions south of the Qinling-Huaihe Line in China. Under the three future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat of Monotropa uniflora L. showed an overall expansion trend, and the distribution centroid shifted towards higher latitudes and elevations as a whole. This study provides theoretical guidance and data support for the conservation and management of Monotropa uniflora L. Meanwhile, the distribution of Monotropa uniflora L. is not only dominated by climate but also strictly constrained by its mycoheterotrophic ecological mechanism. The findings provide theoretical guidance for the conservation planning of this species and point the way for future precise predictions incorporating biological interactions.