过去千年浙江极端旱涝事件与太平洋年代际振荡

Extreme Drought and Flood Events in Zhejiang over the Past Millennium and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

摘要: 以历史文献作为代用资料，采用均一法重建过去千年浙江极端旱涝事件序列，在此基础上探讨过去千年浙江极端旱涝灾害与海–气活动间的关系。结论如下：在过去千年中，极端干旱事件在12世纪上半叶发生概率最高；极端洪涝事件在16世纪上半叶最为频繁。极端干旱事件在过去千年江南地区偏干时期发生概率上升。暖期时季风越强，极端旱涝出现的概率越高。小冰期时段，极端旱涝事件出现概率整体偏低。在PDO极端暖位相且是ENSO发展阶段时，极端洪涝事件发生概率显著上升，这可能与PDO对东亚夏季风和El Nino事件的作用有关。

Abstract: Using historical documents as substitute data, the homogenization method is used to reconstruct extreme drought/flood events of Zhejiang Province over the past millennium. On this basis, the relationship between extreme drought/flood events and ocean-atmosphere activities is explored. The result shows that the probability of extreme drought events is highest in the first half of the 12th century, and the probability of extreme flood events is highest in the first half of the 16th century. The results indicate that probability of extreme drought events will rise in dry period of Jiangnan area. What’s more, the Summer monsoon of East Asia is stronger, and the probability of extreme drought/flood events is higher in the Medieval Warm Period and Modern warm period. The probability of extreme drought/flood events are low in the Little Ice Age. The probability of extreme flood events will exist ascension in extreme warm phase of PDO and ENSO developing years, and this may be because the PDO can affect East Asian summer monsoon and El Nino events.