基于DEMATEL-ISM模型的电解铝建设项目施工阶段成本风险研究

Research on Cost Risks during the Construction Phase of Electrolytic Aluminum Construction Projects Based on the DEMATEL-ISM Model

摘要: 近年来，在国家“双碳”战略与行业政策推动下，电解铝产能置换与技术升级项目集中建设，其施工阶段成本风险管理至关重要。本文针对电解铝建设项目成本风险研究不足的现状，运用DEMATEL-ISM模型开展研究。通过文献与访谈识别出5个相关方的18个成本风险因素的成本风险清单，并以云南省某电解铝建设项目为案例，计算各风险因素的影响度、被影响度、中心度及权重，构建结构层级模型。将风险因素划分为直接影响、间接影响、根本影响三大区间及五个层级，并基于研究结果，从保障建设单位资金按期支付、加强施工组织设计管理与重点关注直接成本损失三方面提出风险防范对策，为电解铝建设项目施工阶段成本风险管控提供科学依据。

Abstract: In recent years, driven by the national “dual carbon” strategy and industry policies, capacity replacement and technological upgrading projects of electrolytic aluminum have been concentrated, making cost risk management during the construction phase crucial. Addressing the lack of research on cost risks of electrolytic aluminum construction projects, this paper adopts the DEMATEL-ISM model for research. Through literature review and interviews, a cost risk list consisting of 18 risk factors involving 5 relevant parties is identified. Taking an electrolytic aluminum construction project in Yunnan Province as a case study, the influence degree, affected degree, centrality and weight of each risk factor are calculated, and a hierarchical structure model is constructed. The risk factors are divided into three major categories (direct impact, indirect impact, and fundamental impact) and five levels. Based on the research results, risk prevention countermeasures are proposed from three aspects: ensuring timely fund payment by the construction unit, strengthening the management of construction organization design, and focusing on direct cost loss, providing a scientific basis for cost risk control during the construction phase of electrolytic aluminum construction projects.