基于政策“工具–效力”维度的中国南北供暖政策分析

Analysis of China’s North-South Heating Policies Based on the Policy “Instrument-Effectiveness” Dimension

摘要: 我国供暖体系长期呈现“北暖南冷”的空间格局。供暖政策的设计与实施，不仅直接关系到民生福祉，也与国家能源结构优化和生态文明建设紧密相连。对现有供暖政策进行系统评估，对于推动构建科学、高效、公平的现代供暖体系具有关键意义。本研究基于“政策工具–政策效力”二维分析框架，综合运用内容分析法和PMC指数模型，对2012年至2024年间国家层面、南北区域及分界线重点省份发布的16份代表性供暖政策文本进行了量化评估与比较分析。研究发现：政策工具使用上，环境型(65.0%)与供给型(26.6%)工具占主导，需求型工具(8.4%)占比较低，内部组合存在“重规划标准与资源配置，轻金融税收与政府采购”的失衡；政策效力上，PMC指数均值为6.75，总体“良好”，但存在结构性短板。政策客体与政策目标维度得分偏低，表明现有政策对南方供暖探索与农村地区覆盖不足。本研究首次将“工具–效力”二维框架系统应用于供暖政策的跨区域比较与个体深度剖析，明确了当前政策在工具配置、客体覆盖与目标引领上的核心问题，为优化供暖政策体系提供了理论依据与策略参考。

Abstract: China’s heating system has long been characterized by a spatial pattern of “heating in the North, non-heating in the South”. The design and implementation of heating policies are not only directly related to people’s well-being but also closely linked to the optimization of the national energy structure and the construction of an ecological civilization. A systematic evaluation of existing heating policies is of critical significance for promoting the establishment of a scientific, efficient, and equitable modern heating system. Based on a two-dimensional analytical framework of “policy instrument-policy effectiveness”, this study comprehensively employs content analysis and the PMC index model to conduct a quantitative evaluation and comparative analysis of 16 representative heating policy texts issued between 2012 and 2024 at the national level, in northern and southern regions, and in key provinces along the demarcation line. The findings reveal that, in terms of policy instrument use, environmental-side (65.0%) and supply-side (26.6%) instruments dominate, while demand-side instruments account for a relatively low proportion (8.4%). An internal imbalance is observed, characterized by an overemphasis on planning standards and resource allocation and a neglect of financial taxation and government procurement. Regarding policy effectiveness, the mean PMC index is 6.75, indicating an overall “good” level, yet structural shortcomings persist. The dimensions of policy object and policy goal score relatively low, suggesting that existing policies inadequately address the exploration of heating in the South and coverage in rural areas. This study represents the first systematic application of the “instrument-effectiveness” two-dimensional framework to cross-regional comparison and in-depth individual analysis of heating policies, identifying core issues in instrument configuration, object coverage, and goal orientation, thereby providing a theoretical basis and strategic reference for optimizing the heating policy system.