挤占还是促进——渐进式延迟法定退休年龄对就业的影响研究

Input or Output—The Impact of Raising the Retirement Age in Progressive Steps on Employment

摘要: 随着中国人口老龄化持续加深与劳动力供给结构转变，延迟法定退休年龄已成为国家应对养老压力与人力资源优化的重要战略。基于2001~2023年中国31个省份的面板数据，以老年人口抚养比作为延迟退休的政策代理变量，构建双向固定效应模型进行估计。结果显示，延迟退休对就业率存在显著的促进作用，表现为补充效应。从地区看，在东部和西部地区作用显著，而在中部和东北地区不显著；从人力资本看，对高学历群体的就业促进效应明显，对低学历群体则不显著。研究表明，延迟退休的就业效应受地区经济结构与劳动者人力资本水平的调节。据此，提出了实施差异化政策、构建终身学习体系及完善劳动力市场配套措施等建议，以优化政策实施效果。

Abstract: With the continuous deepening of China’s population aging and the transformation of the labor supply structure, delaying the legal retirement age has become an important strategy for the country to deal with the pressure of elderly care and optimize human resources. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2001 to 2023, taking the dependency ratio of the elderly population as the policy proxy variable for delaying retirement, a bidirectional fixed effects model was constructed for estimation. The results show that delaying retirement has a significant promoting effect on the employment rate, which is manifested as a supplementary effect. From a regional perspective, its effect is significant in the eastern and western regions, but not so significant in the central and northeastern regions. From the perspective of human capital, the employment promotion effect on highly educated groups is obvious, while it is not significant for less educated groups. Research shows that the employment effect of delayed retirement is regulated by the regional economic structure and the level of human capital of workers. Based on this, suggestions such as implementing differentiated policies, building a lifelong learning system and improving supporting measures for the labor market have been put forward to optimize the implementation effect of policies.