深圳典型地质灾害隐患点风险评估与防治对策研究

Research on Risk Assessment and Prevention Countermeasures of Typical Geological Disaster Hazard Points in Shenzhen

摘要: 为解决城市化进程中地质灾害频发对城市安全运行的威胁，以深圳典型地质灾害隐患点为研究对象，通过野外调查、室内试验相结合的方法，分析崩塌、滑坡等地质灾害的孕灾环境与诱发机制，构建基于层次分析法–熵权法(AHP-熵权法)的耦合权重风险评估模型，对隐患点进行风险等级划分。结果表明：深圳地质灾害孕灾环境受地形地貌、地层岩性及人类工程活动等多重因素叠加影响，强降雨是主要诱发因素；构建的评估模型可实现地质灾害风险的精准量化，划分的高、中、低风险区与实际灾害发生情况吻合度较高。基于评估结果提出的“监测预警–工程治理–生态修复”三位一体防治对策，可为深圳及同类城市地质灾害防治工作提供理论依据与技术支撑。

Abstract: To address the threat posed by frequent geological disasters during urbanization to the safe operation of cities, this study takes typical geological hazard points in Shenzhen as the research object. Through a combination of field investigation and laboratory tests, the triggering environment and inducing mechanisms of geological disasters such as collapses and landslides are analyzed. A coupling weight risk assessment model based on the Analytic Hierarchy Process - Entropy Weight Method (AHP-Entropy Weight Method) is constructed to classify the risk levels of the hazard points. The results show that the triggering environment of geological disasters in Shenzhen is influenced by multiple factors such as topography and geomorphology, lithology of strata, and human engineering activities, and heavy rainfall is the main inducing factor. The constructed assessment model can achieve precise quantification of geological disaster risks, and the high, medium, and low risk zones classified are highly consistent with the actual occurrence of disasters. Based on the assessment results, the “monitoring and early warning - engineering governance - ecological restoration” three-in-one prevention and control countermeasures proposed can provide theoretical basis and technical support for the prevention and control of geological disasters in Shenzhen and similar cities.