韶关农业气象灾害特征分析及防灾减灾对策

Analysis of Agricultural Meteorological Disaster Characteristics and Disaster Prevention and Reduction Strategies in Shaoguan

摘要: 为掌握韶关主要农业气象灾害发生规律，本研究基于韶关1978~2020年逐日最高、最低气温、降水量数据，选取极端天气持续日数表征韶关农业气象灾害指标，分析韶关近43 a农业气象灾害的时空分布特征及振荡周期，并提出相应的防御措施。结果表明：近43 a来韶关连续高温日数呈上升趋势、“东北部多，东南和西北部少”的分布特点，存在着15~25、10~15、6~14、2~6年的周期变化规律；连续低温日数呈下降趋势、“北多南少”的分布特点，存在着15~25、10~15、8~15、2~8年的周期变化规律；连续暴雨日数呈上升趋势及“南多北少”的分布特点，存在20~25、10~15、5~10、2~8年的周期变化规律；连续干旱日数呈下降趋势及“南多北少”的分布特点，存在着15~25、10~20、5~10、2~7年这四类尺度的周期变化规律。

Abstract: In order to understand the occurrence patterns of major agricultural meteorological disasters in Shaoguan, this study is based on the daily highest and lowest temperature and precipitation data in Shaoguan from 1978 to 2020, selects the number of days of extreme weather to represent the agricultural meteorological disaster index in Shaoguan, analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics and oscillation cycles of agricultural meteorological disasters in Shaoguan in the past 43 years, and proposes corresponding defensive measures. The results show that in the past 43 years, the number of consecutive high-temperature days in Shaoguan has shown an upward trend, with a distribution characteristic of “more in the northeast, less in the southeast and northwest”, and a cyclical change pattern of 15~25, 10~15, 6~14, and 2~6 years; the number of consecutive low-temperature days has shown a downward trend, with a distribution characteristic of “more in the north and less in the south”, and a cyclical change pattern of 15~25, 10~15, 8~15, 2~8 years. The number of consecutive heavy rain days shows an upward trend and the distribution characteristics of “more in the south and less in the north”, and there are cyclic changes of 20~25, 10~15, 5~10, and 2~8 years; the number of consecutive drought days shows a downward trend and the distribution characteristics of “more in the south and less in the north”, there are four types of cyclic changes: 15~25, 10~20, 5~10, and 2~7 years.