跨境电商韧性建设研究——基于关税不确定性与税务监管穿透的双重视角

Research on Building Resilience in Cross-Border E-Commerce—A Dual Perspective of Tariff Uncertainty and Penetrating Tax Oversight

摘要: 全球贸易保护主义加剧与中国税务监管数字化趋势下，跨境电商行业面临着关税不确定性与税务监管穿透的双重压力，正从低门槛、高红利的粗放式增长转向高质量发展阶段。本文综合相关研究及数据，分析企业在双重压力下出现违规行为的逻辑，剖析其成本控制与合规运营的挑战。研究弥补了当前对于双重压力作用的空白，提出企业、平台与政府三方共同建设韧性路径。未来具备合规能力、供应链韧性和高政策敏感度的企业将率先获得竞争优势，行业将从价格竞争转向价值竞争，从单一市场转向全球布局，最终实现合规且可持续的高质量发展。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of rising global trade protectionism and China’s digital tax supervision advancement, cross-border e-commerce faces dual pressures of tariff uncertainty and penetrating tax regulation, shifting from extensive growth with low barriers and high dividends to high-quality development. From a dual-perspective, this paper synthesizes research and data to analyze the logic of enterprises’ noncompliant behaviors under such pressures and dissect the core dilemma between cost control and compliant operation. This research fills a gap in understanding the dual pressures’ impact, proposing a resilience-building pathway involving enterprises, platforms, and governments. Enterprises possessing compliance capabilities, supply chain resilience and policy sensitivity will gain competitive advantages first. The industry will shift from price competition to value competition, transition from single-market focus to global expansion, and ultimately achieve compliant, sustainable, high-quality development.