基于三维水生态足迹的郑州市水资源状况评估

Assessment of Water Resources Status in Zhengzhou City Based on the Three-Dimensional Water Ecological Footprint

摘要: 郑州市作为严重缺水型城市，对其进行水资源状况的综合评估确有必要。本文采用三维水生态足迹模型，研究郑州市2016~2024年水生态足迹、水生态承载力等相关指标，结合Tapio模型分析水资源与经济发展之间的联系，结果表明：1) 研究期间该市水量生态足迹保持稳定，水质生态足迹总体呈上升态势；水资源生态承载力和水质生态承载力的变化趋势基本一致，在波动中小幅上升；2) 分析该市存量流量利用比，研究期间除2021年安全状态为中度不可持续外，其余年份均为极端不可持续；3) 基于建立的Tapio脱钩模型，该市水资源与经济发展有向强脱钩状态发展的趋势，用水效率有所提高，水资源状况与经济发展的协调性逐渐增强。

Abstract: Zhengzhou is a severely water-scarce city, making a comprehensive assessment of its water resources status imperative. This study employs the three-dimensional water ecological footprint model to investigate relevant indicators including the water ecological footprint and water ecological carrying capacity of Zhengzhou City during the period 2016~2024. Combined with the Tapio decoupling model, it analyzes the relationship between water resources and economic development. The results indicate that: 1) Throughout the study period, the water quantity ecological footprint of the city remained stable, while the water quality ecological footprint showed an overall upward trend; the water resources ecological carrying capacity and water quality ecological carrying capacity exhibited a basically consistent variation trend, increasing slightly with fluctuations. 2) An analysis of the city’s stock-flow utilization ratio reveals that all years under study were in an extremely unsustainable state, except for 2021, which was classified as moderately unsustainable. 3) Based on the established Tapio decoupling model, the relationship between water resources and economic development in the city tends to move towards a strong decoupling state, indicating an improvement in water use efficiency and a gradual enhancement in the coordination between water resources conditions and economic development.