增强型地热系统开发中诱发地震的机制、监测与风险管控研究综述

Review on the Mechanism, Monitoring and Risk Management of Earthquakes Induced during Enhanced Geothermal System Development

摘要: 本文系统综述了增强型地热系统(EGS)开发过程中诱发地震活动的机制、实验研究现状、数值模拟研究及预测挑战。随着全球向清洁能源转型，干热岩地热资源因其储量大、稳定性高等优势成为重点开发方向，但其水力压裂过程中诱发的地震事件已成为制约EGS技术商业化应用的关键问题。分析了全球多个EGS项目的地震案例，表明诱发地震主要与孔隙压力变化、孔隙弹性效应、热应力和断层活化等机制相关。其中，流体注入导致的孔隙压力增加是触发断层滑动的直接因素，而注水速率、地质构造背景及先存断层分布是影响地震活动规模的核心参数。研究指出，通过微震监测、数值模拟和实时应力场分析可实现风险预警，但EGS地震的滞后效应和复杂耦合机制仍待深入探索。最后，需结合地质力学建模与现场监测数据，制定科学的注水策略以平衡地热开发效率与地震风险控制。

Abstract: This paper systematically reviews the mechanisms, experimental research status, numerical simulation studies and prediction challenges of earthquake activities induced during the development of Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS). As the world transitions towards clean energy, dry hot rock geothermal resources with large reserves and high stability have become a key development direction. However, the earthquake events induced during the hydraulic fracturing process of dry hot rock have become a key issue restricting the commercial application of EGS technology. Analyzing the earthquake cases of multiple EGS projects worldwide, it is found that the induced earthquakes are mainly related to pore pressure changes, pore elastic effects, thermal stress and fault activation mechanisms. Among them, the increase in pore pressure caused by fluid injection is the direct factor triggering fault sliding, while the injection rate, geological structure background and pre-existing fault distribution are the core parameters affecting the scale of earthquake activities. The study points out that risk warnings can be achieved through microseismic monitoring, numerical simulation and real-time stress field analysis, but the lag effect and complex coupling mechanism of EGS earthquakes still need to be further explored. Finally, it is necessary to combine geological mechanics modeling and on-site monitoring data to formulate scientific injection strategies to balance the efficiency of geothermal development and earthquake risk control.