自由贸易协定对泰国出口中国纺织服装的影响研究

The Impact of the China-Thailand Free Trade Agreement on Thailand’s Textile and Apparel Exports to China

摘要: 本文以中泰自由贸易协定为研究对象，系统考察其自2003年实施以来对泰国对中国纺织品与服装出口的影响。基于引力模型框架，选取2000~2023年泰国对中国出口的面板数据，采用固定效应模型进行实证分析，并结合滞后变量分析、时间异质性分析以及工具变量法(2SLS)等稳健性检验，从相关性与内生性控制两个层面评估自由贸易协定的政策效应。研究结果表明，中泰自由贸易协定对泰国纺织品出口具有较为稳健的促进作用，而其对服装出口的影响在不同模型和时间阶段中表现出一定的差异性。进一步分析发现，自由贸易协定对服装出口的正向效应主要体现在政策实施初期，尚未在长期阶段形成持续增强的效果，反映出劳动密集型产业对贸易自由化政策具有较高的阶段性敏感特征。工具变量法的结果在方向上与基准回归保持一致，为政策效应的稳健性提供了进一步支持。本文的研究结论为理解区域自由贸易协定在细分产业层面的经济效应提供了新的经验证据，也为泰国在自由贸易协定框架下进一步优化产业结构、提升出口质量以及深化中泰经贸合作提供了有益参考。

Abstract: This study examines the impact of the China-Thailand Free Trade Agreement on Thailand’s exports of textiles and apparel to China since its implementation in 2003. Drawing on the gravity model framework, the analysis employs panel data on Thailand’s exports to China over the period 2000~2023 and estimates fixed-effects models. To ensure robustness and address potential endogeneity, the study further incorporates lag specifications, time-heterogeneity analysis, and instrumental variable approach (2SLS) to mitigate potential endogeneity, thereby providing a more robust evaluation of the policy effects. The empirical results indicate that the China-Thailand Free Trade Agreement has exerted a relatively robust and positive effect on Thailand’s textile exports to China, while its impact on apparel exports exhibits notable heterogeneity across model specifications and time periods. Further evidence suggests that the positive effect on apparel exports is concentrated in the early stage of the agreement’s implementation and does not persist or intensify in the long run, highlighting the stage-dependent sensitivity of labor-intensive industries to trade liberalization policies. The instrumental variable estimates remain consistent with the baseline results, further supporting the robustness of the findings. Overall, this study provides new empirical evidence on the industry-specific effects of regional free trade agreements and offers policy-relevant insights for Thailand in optimizing its industrial structure, enhancing export quality, and deepening economic and trade cooperation with China under the free trade agreement framework.