农业新质生产力推动实现共同富裕的效应分析

Analysis of the Effect of New Agricultural Productive Forces in Promoting the Realization of Common Prosperity

摘要: 文章基于我国31个省(自治区、直辖市) 2014~2023年的面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型、中介效应模型和门槛效应模型实证检验农业新质生产力对共同富裕的影响。研究结果表明：农业新质生产力能够推动实现共同富裕，且该结论在进行一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。中介效应检验证实，农业全要素生产率在农业新质生产力与共同富裕间发挥了中介作用；异质性分析显示，农业新质生产力对共同富裕的促进效果因地理分区和城镇化水平存在差异，在中西部地区及城镇化水平低的地区更加明显；该影响存在基于互联网普及率的门槛效应，且呈现双重门槛特征，随着互联网普及率升高，农业新质生产力对共同富裕的影响呈现边际报酬递增的趋势。基于研究结果，以各个结论的关键部分为出发点提出建议，助益加快实现共同富裕。

Abstract: Based on the panel data of 31 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) in China from 2014 to 2023, this paper empirically tests the influence of new agricultural quality productivity on common prosperity by using a two-way fixed effect model, intermediary effect model, and threshold effect model. The results show that the new agricultural quality productivity can promote the realization of common prosperity, and this conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. The test of intermediary effect confirms that agricultural total factor productivity plays an intermediary role between agricultural new quality productivity and common prosperity; Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promotion effect of agricultural new quality productivity on common prosperity is different due to geographical division and urbanization level, especially in the central and western regions and areas with low urbanization level. The influence of agricultural new quality productivity on common prosperity has a threshold of Internet penetration rate, and there is a double threshold effect. With the increase in Internet penetration rate, the influence of agricultural new quality productivity on common prosperity presents the characteristics of marginal return increasing. Based on the research results, this paper puts forward some targeted suggestions from the key parts of each conclusion, which are helpful to accelerate the realization of common prosperity.