陕西农村物流发展赋能消费活力：基于VAR模型的动态传导机制

The Development of Rural Logistics in Shaanxi Province Empowers the Vitality of Consumption: A Dynamic Transmission Mechanism Based onVAR Model

摘要: 本研究选取2005~2022年间陕西省相关经济数据，包括农林牧渔领域的生产总量、农村居民个人消费的年度支出、乡村地区邮政网络的覆盖里程，以及交通物流、仓储设施和邮政行业在农村区域的固定资产投入等指标。在此基础上构建向量自回归模型(VAR)，对数据序列展开协整关系检验，生成变量间的脉冲响应函数图像，并通过方差分解技术进一步量化各影响因素对陕西省农村居民消费支出的贡献比例。结合陕西省整体发展态势，研究结果表明：农村物流体系与当地农村居民的人均消费能力之间存在长期稳定的均衡关联，并且农村物流的完善对提升农民消费层次具有积极的推动作用。

Abstract: This paper utilizes statistical data from 2005 to 2022 to analyze the impact of the gross output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, per capita consumption expenditure of rural residents, total length of rural postal routes, and fixed-asset investment in rural transportation, warehousing, and postal services on farmers’ consumption, employing VAR model. Additionally, impulse response function graphs were also generated. The findings indicate that there is a cointegrating association between the growth of rural logistics and the per capita consumption expenditure of rural households in Shaanxi Province, with rural logistics development demonstrating a positive impact on enhancing rural residents’ per capita consumption levels.