广东省人口老龄化对劳动力市场影响的实证研究——基于GM(1,1)-Logistic组合模型

An Empirical Study on the Impact of Population Aging on the Labor Market in Guangdong Province—Based on the GM(1,1)-Logistic Combination Model

摘要: 广东省作为经济第一大省，老年人口规模庞大，老龄化问题日益严峻。基于广东省2000~2023年的人口数据，通过构建GM(1,1)-Logistic组合模型预测广东省未来人口老龄化趋势，同时构建多元回归和误差修正模型以分析老龄化对劳动力市场的影响。结果显示，广东省65岁及以上老年人口预计在2030年达到1600万，占总人口的比例达10.95%，老龄化程度进一步加深；广东省人口老龄化与劳动参与率呈正相关关系：一方面是因为养老负担使得部分非经济活动人口重新进入劳动力市场；另一方面银发经济倒逼产业结构升级，从而创造了新的就业机会。最后提出发展银发经济等政策建议，以积极应对广东省人口老龄化。

Abstract: As the largest economic province in China, Guangdong Province faces a significant aging population and increasingly severe aging issues. Based on population data from 2000 to 2023 in Guangdong, this study predicts future population aging trends by constructing a GM(1,1)-Logistic combination model, while analyzing the impact of aging on the labor market through multiple regression and error correction models. The results indicate that Guangdong’s population aged 65 and above is projected to reach 16 million by 2030, accounting for 10.95% of the total population, reflecting a deepening aging trend. The study reveals a positive correlation between population aging and labor force participation rate in Guangdong: On one hand, pension burdens drive some non-economically active individuals to re-enter the labor market; on the other hand, the silver economy spurs industrial upgrading, creating new employment opportunities. Finally, policy recommendations including developing the silver economy are proposed to actively address population aging in Guangdong.