风险评估理论演进：风险评估到风险治理

The Evolution of Risk Assessment Theory: From Risk Assessment to Risk Governance

摘要: 本文综述了风险评估理论的发展历程和在公共管理中的应用。文章首先概述了风险管理学科的起源，从企业管理到公共部门和社会治理领域的扩展。接着，文章对危机与风险的概念进行了辨析，讨论了风险评估的多维性和主观性。在风险评估理论的梳理中，介绍了多种风险评估工具和技术，并强调了风险评估整合性框架的必要性。文章还探讨了风险治理中的社会影响评估，并指出在中国，社会风险评估正在逐步得到重视和发展。最后，文章提出了风险评估的未来发展方向，包括加强跨学科合作和提高评估的科学性与实用性。通过这些措施，风险评估将更好地服务于公共管理，为决策提供准确的支持。

Abstract: This paper reviews the development of risk assessment theory and its application in public administration. It first outlines the origins of risk management as a discipline, tracing its expansion from corporate management to the public sector and social governance. Subsequently, the paper distinguishes between the concepts of crisis and risk, discussing the multidimensional and subjective nature of risk assessment. In examining risk assessment theories, it introduces various risk assessment tools and techniques, emphasizing the necessity of an integrated risk assessment framework. The paper also explores social impact assessment within risk governance, noting that social risk assessment is gradually gaining prominence and development in China. Finally, it proposes future directions for risk assessment, including strengthening interdisciplinary collaboration and enhancing the scientific rigor and practical utility of assessments. Through these measures, risk assessment will better serve public administration by providing accurate support for decision-making.