算法规制强度对数字交付服务贸易的影响研究——基于30个主要经济体的实证分析

Research on the Impact of Algorithmic Regulation Intensity on Digitally Delivered Services Trade—Empirical Analysis Based on 30 Major Economies

摘要: 生成式人工智能的快速发展使算法成为数字交付服务贸易的核心驱动力，同时也引发了数据隐私、算法歧视等治理挑战，推动全球范围内算法规制政策的密集出台。本研究聚焦一个关键问题：不同强度的算法规制如何影响一国数字服务贸易？为量化规制差异，我们构建了包含备案、审计、披露与数据本地化四个维度的算法规制强度指数(RSI)，并基于2020至2023年全球30个经济体的面板数据，采用Lee-Wooldridge双重差分法进行实证检验。研究发现，算法规制对贸易的影响呈现显著的非对称性与时变特征。在出口方面，规制实施初期产生约15.2%的抑制效应，但长期平均效应不显著，表明高规制国家的企业凭借技术优势与合规能力逐步消化了短期成本。在进口方面，规制显著促进数字服务进口，平均提升幅度达15.5%，且促进效应持续增强，从2021年的6.0%上升至2023年的25.5%，反映出高强度治理通过增强制度确定性与消费者信任，有效吸引高质量境外服务商进入。本研究揭示了算法规制的“双面性”：短期表现为合规成本，长期则转化为制度信任红利，为协调数字治理安全与贸易增长目标提供了新的理论视角。

Abstract: The rapid development of generative artificial intelligence has made algorithms a core driver of digitally delivered services trade, while also triggering governance challenges such as data privacy and algorithmic discrimination, prompting a flurry of algorithmic regulatory policies globally. This study focuses on a key question: how do different levels of algorithmic regulation affect a country’s digital service trade? To quantify regulatory differences, we constructed an Algorithm Regulation Intensity Index (RSI) encompassing four dimensions: filing, auditing, disclosure, and data localization. Based on panel data from 30 economies globally from 2020 to 2023, we conducted an empirical test using the Lee-Wooldridge difference-in-differences method. The study found that the impact of algorithmic regulation on trade exhibits significant asymmetry and time-varying characteristics. Regarding exports, the initial implementation of regulations produces an inhibitory effect of approximately 15.2%, but the long-term average effect is not significant, indicating that companies in highly regulated countries gradually absorb short-term costs through technological advantages and compliance capabilities. On the import side, regulations significantly boosted digital service imports, with an average increase of 15.5%, and this positive effect continued to strengthen, rising from 6.0% in 2021 to 25.5% in 2023. This reflects how intensive governance, by enhancing institutional certainty and consumer trust, effectively attracted high-quality overseas service providers. This study reveals the “two-sidedness” of algorithm regulation: in the short term, it manifests as compliance costs, while in the long term, it transforms into institutional trust dividends, providing a new theoretical perspective for coordinating digital governance security and trade growth goals.