数字经济对城市绿色发展的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Digital Economy on Urban Green Development

摘要: 在“双碳”目标约束和数字化转型加快推进的背景下，探索数字经济推动城市绿色发展的内在机制具有重要理论意义和现实价值。本文聚焦数字经济与城市绿色发展的互动关系，从直接效应、中介机制与门槛特征三个维度构建理论分析框架，选取2014~2022年中国152个地级市的面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型、Bootstrap中介效应分析及面板门槛模型进行实证检验。研究结果表明：(1) 数字经济显著促进了城市绿色发展水平，结论在稳健性检验下仍然成立；(2) 数字经济对绿色发展的影响存在显著门槛特征，在数字经济发展水平跨越阈值前后，其促进效应表现出强弱变化；(3) 异质性分析显示，不同时间阶段数字经济对绿色发展的影响方向与强度存在显著差异，表明其作用具有阶段性特征。据此，应加强数字经济与绿色发展政策协同，强化服务业结构优化与绿色技术驱动，推动构建以数字赋能为基础的城市可持续发展路径。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of the “dual carbon” goals and the acceleration of digital transformation, exploring the intrinsic mechanisms through which the digital economy promotes urban green development holds significant theoretical importance and practical value. This paper focuses on the interactive relationship between the digital economy and urban green development. It constructs a theoretical analysis framework from three dimensions: direct effects, mediating mechanisms, and threshold characteristics. Using panel data from 152 prefecture-level cities in China from 2014 to 2022, empirical tests are conducted employing two-way fixed effects models, Bootstrap mediation effect analysis, and panel threshold models. The research findings indicate that: (1) The digital economy significantly enhances the level of urban green development, a conclusion that remains robust under various sensitivity checks; (2) The impact of the digital economy on green development exhibits notable threshold characteristics, with its promotional effect showing varying strength before and after crossing the threshold level of digital economy development; (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals significant differences in the direction and intensity of the digital economy’s impact on green development across different time periods, suggesting that its effect has distinct stage characteristics. Accordingly, policies should strengthen the synergy between the digital economy and green development, enhance the optimization of the service sector structure and drive green technology innovation, and promote the construction of a sustainable urban development path based on digital empowerment.