预测性信息披露安全港规则研究与制度探索

Research and Exploration of Predictive Disclosure Security Harbor Rules

摘要: 预测性信息是上市公司对不确定性事项的展望，其披露有助于激发证券市场活力。为鼓励此类披露，2022年《关于审理证券市场虚假陈述侵权民事赔偿案件的若干规定》引入了安全港规则，明确当预测性信息与实际经营情况存在重大差异时，原则上不构成虚假陈述，并设置了三项除外条款。然而，该规则表述原则化，缺乏配套制度。本文从基础概念、规则适用出发，探讨安全港规则的具体内容、不足，并提出完善路径。

Abstract: Predictive information refers to listed companies’ outlook on uncertain future events, and its disclosure helps to stimulate the vitality of the securities market. To encourage such disclosures, the 2022 “Provisions on Several Issues Concerning the Trial of Civil Compensation Cases for Misrepresentation in the Securities Market” introduced the safe harbor rule, clarifying that when predictive information significantly deviates from actual operating conditions, it does not constitute misrepresentation in principle, while setting forth three exclusion clauses. However, the rule’s wording is overly principled and lacks supporting systems. This paper starts from basic concepts and rule application, explores the specific content and shortcomings of the safe harbor rule for predictive information disclosure, and proposes pathways for improvement.