收入风险对家庭经济韧性的影响研究——基于中国家庭金融调查数据库

A Study on the Impact of Income Risk on Household Economic Resilience—Based on the China Household Finance Survey Database

摘要: 随着经济不确定性的增强，收入风险已成为影响家庭经济稳定的核心因素。本文利用2015至2023年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)五轮微观追踪数据，构建非平衡面板，系统考察收入风险对家庭经济韧性的影响及其机制。研究发现，收入风险显著抑制家庭经济韧性，其中暂时性风险的负面冲击尤为剧烈。为缓解内生性问题，选取“社区内其他家庭收入风险的中位数”作为工具变量进行估计，结果依然稳健。机制分析表明，保险支出通过风险分担效应缓冲了收入风险的负面影响，而资产流动性约束则放大了这一负面效应；发展型消费在收入风险与家庭经济韧性之间发挥部分中介作用，收入风险通过抑制家庭在教育和医疗等方面的长期投资，间接侵蚀经济韧性。异质性分析发现，低收入、低学历及社会资本薄弱的家庭是风险冲击下的主要脆弱群体。本文为理解收入风险如何影响家庭长期发展能力提供了新视角，并为完善社会保障体系、缓解家庭流动性约束、保障发展型消费投入提供了政策参考。

Abstract: With increasing economic uncertainty, income risk has become a core factor affecting household economic stability. Utilizing five waves of micro-tracking data from the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) from 2015 to 2023, this paper constructs an unbalanced panel to systematically examine the impact of income risk on household economic resilience and its underlying mechanisms. The study finds that income risk significantly suppresses household economic resilience, with the negative impact of transitory income risk being particularly pronounced. To mitigate endogeneity issues, the median income risk of other households within the same community is selected as an instrumental variable for estimation, and the results remain robust. Mechanism analysis indicates that insurance expenditure buffers the negative impact of income risk through risk-sharing effects, while asset liquidity constraints amplify this adverse effect. Developmental consumption plays a partial mediating role between income risk and household economic resilience, as income risk indirectly erodes resilience by restraining long-term household investments in education and healthcare. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that low-income, low-education, and socially disadvantaged households are the primary vulnerable groups under risk shocks. This paper provides a new perspective on understanding how income risk affects households’ long-term development capacity and offers policy references for improving the social security system, alleviating household liquidity constraints, and safeguarding developmental consumption investments.