新疆乌苏市汛期短时强降水时空分布特征

Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall during Flood Season in Wusu, Xinjiang

摘要: 本文利用2014年至2024年汛期(5~8月)乌苏市28个气象自动站逐时降水资料，通过统计学方法分析了乌苏市短时强降水(≥10.0 mm/h)的时空分布特征。研究发现：近10年乌苏市短时强降水整体趋势无明显变化；空间上呈现显著的“北低南高”梯度分布，高频区集中在南部山区；时间上，7月为高发月(特别是7月上旬)，日变化呈现“傍晚至夜间高发、上午至中午低发”的双峰单谷特征；随着降水强度的增加，频次显著减少，且高强度降水(≥25.0 mm/h)仅局限于南部山区极小范围。

Abstract: Based on hourly precipitation data from 28 automatic meteorological stations in Wusu during the flood season (May-August) from 2014 to 2024, the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of short-duration heavy rainfall (≥10.0 mm/h) were analyzed using statistical methods. The results show that there was no obvious trend in short-duration heavy rainfall in Wusu in the recent 10 years. Spatially, it presents a significant “low in the north and high in the south” gradient distribution, with high-frequency regions concentrated in the southern mountainous areas. Temporally, July is the high-occurrence month (especially early July), and the diurnal variation shows a double-peak and single-valley pattern with high incidence from evening to night and low incidence from morning to noon. With the increase of precipitation intensity, the frequency decreases significantly, and high-intensity precipitation (≥25.0 mm/h) is limited to a very small area in the southern mountainous region.