上海养老保险基金结余的社会学分析与可持续性发展路径重构

A Sociological Analysis of Shanghai’s Pension Fund Surplus and the Reconstruction of Sustainable Development Pathways

摘要: 本研究基于灰色系统理论，构建了GM(1,1)预测模型，旨在量化分析上海市养老保险基金结余量及其关键关联因素的动态演化趋势。通过整合2013~2022年上海市养老保险基金结余、地区生产总值、职工平均工资等数据，对模型进行建模与检验。结果显示：(1) 模型整体精度较高，在预测上海市养老保险基金结余及其关联因素方面表现出较高的适用性。(2) 2023~2032年上海市养老保险基金结余量将逐年下降，凸显人口老龄化加速与基金支出压力增大的挑战。基金结余的减少不仅是财务指标的反映，其背后更蕴含着人口结构转型、家庭结构变迁、社会公平等深层社会议题。基于此，研究提出优化基金收支结构、推进渐进式延迟退休年龄政策、构建多层次养老保险体系等政策建议，以增强制度可持续性，并强调了政策设计需兼顾社会接纳度与公平性。本研究为养老保险基金的长期规划提供了科学依据，但需进一步细化变量选取并加强模型动态校准。

Abstract: This study employs the Grey System Theory to construct a GM(1,1) predictive model, aiming to quantitatively analyze the dynamic evolution trends of Shanghai’s pension fund surplus and its key associated factors. By integrating data from 2013 to 2022 on Shanghai’s pension fund surplus, regional GDP, and average employee wages, the model was developed and validated. Results indicate: (1) The model demonstrates high overall accuracy and applicability in forecasting Shanghai’s pension fund surplus and its associated factors. (2) From 2023 to 2032, the pension fund surplus will decline annually, highlighting challenges posed by accelerating population aging and increasing expenditure pressures. The reduction in fund surplus reflects not only financial indicators but also underlying societal issues such as demographic transition, family structure changes, and social equity. Based on this, the study proposes policy recommendations including optimizing fund revenue and expenditure structures, advancing a gradual retirement age delay policy, and establishing a multi-tiered pension insurance system to enhance institutional sustainability. It emphasizes that policy design must balance social acceptability and fairness. This study provides scientific grounds for long-term pension fund planning, though it requires further refinement in variable selection and enhanced dynamic model calibration.