人口老龄化对收入差距的影响——基于消费升级门槛效应的省域实证

The Impact of Population Aging on Income Gap—Provincial Empirical Evidence Based on the Threshold Effect of Consumption Upgrade

摘要: 面对共同富裕目标与人口老龄化进程加快的双重挑战，居民收入差距持续高位运行与区域发展分化，严重阻碍了社会公平的实现。本文基于2011~2023年省级面板数据，实证检验人口老龄化通过技术创新路径影响收入分配的作用机制。研究发现，人口老龄化显著扩大了居民收入差距；技术创新在一定程度上减弱这一关系；而消费升级存在双重门槛效应，消费水平较高时老龄化对收入差距的扩大效应减缓。建议加大技术创新投入力度、促进区域协调发展，以应对人口老龄化带来的收入分配挑战。

Abstract: Against the dual backdrop of advancing common prosperity goals and accelerating population aging, persistent income inequality and regional disparities have emerged as critical challenges to social equity. Utilizing provincial panel data from 2011 to 2023, this paper empirically examines the mechanism through which population aging influences income distribution via technological innovation. The findings reveal that population aging significantly widens the income gap; however, technological innovation partially mitigates this effect. Consumption upgrading exhibits a double threshold effect, where the widening impact of aging on income inequality diminishes at higher consumption levels. Policy recommendations emphasize strengthening investment in technological innovation and promoting coordinated regional development to address the income distribution challenges posed by population aging.