中国银发经济高质量发展的供需错配与破解路径

Supply-Demand Mismatch and Mechanisms for High-Quality Development of China’s Silver Economy

摘要: 中国银发经济面临供需结构性失衡的挑战。理论上老年人口规模巨大，市场前景广阔；现实却是产业盈利能力薄弱，供需结构性错配严重。本文旨在剖析供需错配的生成机理，探索高质量发展路径。本文基于供需匹配理论，采用文献研究与政策分析法，剖析供需错配的生成机理与破解路径。研究构建涵盖需求侧(支付能力、消费偏好、数字素养)与供给侧(产品结构、产业动能、制度环境)的双维分析框架。研究发现，供需错配的核心症结在于双向约束：需求侧存在支付能力分化、消费观念滞后、数字鸿沟三重约束；供给侧存在产品结构失衡、创新动能不足、制度缺失三大矛盾。其中，城乡养老金待遇悬殊是抑制农村老年人有效需求的制度性根源；技术供给与用户能力的“适配性困境”导致智慧养老产品陷入“不好用–不愿用–不推广”的恶性循环。破解供需错配需构建“制度分层–供给创新–需求激活–要素保障”的四维治理框架：依据准公共品属性划分供给层次，厘清政府与市场边界；推动产品研发从“适老化改造”向“功能性重构”转型；通过多层次保障体系与数字包容治理释放有效需求；强化土地、资金、数据等要素市场化配置与风险治理机制。

Abstract: China’s silver economy faces the challenge of structural imbalance between supply and demand. Theoretically, the elderly population is vast, and the market prospects are broad; in reality, however, the industry’s profitability is weak, and the structural mismatch between supply and demand is severe. This paper aims to analyze the generation mechanism of supply-demand mismatch and explore paths for high-quality development. Based on the theory of supply-demand matching, this paper employs literature review and policy analysis to examine the generation mechanism and solutions for supply-demand mismatch. The study constructs a two-dimensional analytical framework covering the demand side (payment capacity, consumption preferences, digital literacy) and the supply side (product structure, industrial momentum, institutional environment). The findings reveal that the core issue of supply-demand mismatch lies in bidirectional constraints: on the demand side, there are three constraints—payment capacity differentiation, lagging consumption concepts, and the digital divide; on the supply side, there are three contradictions—imbalance in product structure, insufficient innovation momentum, and institutional deficiencies. Among these, the disparity in pension benefits between urban and rural areas is the institutional root cause of suppressing effective demand among rural elderly. The “fitting dilemma” between technological supply and user capabilities leads to a vicious cycle of “unused-friendly-unwillingness to use-non-promotion” for smart elderly care products. To address supply-demand mismatch, a four-dimensional governance framework—“institutional stratification-supply innovation-demand activation-factor guarantee”—must be established: supply levels should be categorized based on the quasi-public good attribute, clarifying the boundaries between government and market; product development should shift from “age-friendly adaptation” to “functional reconstruction”; effective demand should be unleashed through a multi-level guarantee system and digital inclusion governance; and market-oriented allocation and risk governance mechanisms for factors such as land, capital, and data should be strengthened.