面向决策的区域微电网定量评估框架

A Quantitative Evaluation Framework for Regional Microgrids Aimed at Decision-Making

摘要: 针对区域微电网研究中“运行优化结果难以直接转化为规划和政策判断依据”的问题，本文提出一种面向决策的定量评估框架。该框架将系统输入、运行决策机制与绩效评估层进行解耦，并通过统一的信息流将短期运行行为映射到年度成本、燃料消耗和二氧化碳排放等长期指标。为说明框架的工程可操作性，文中选取由三台柴油发电机构成的区域微电网作为案例，在相同负荷条件下比较“基准调度场景”和“按成本优先的决策导向场景”。同时补充了一个可复现实算例：基于公开可计算的机组参数、年度负荷持续曲线、柴油价格和排放系数，逐项给出计算方法与结果。结果表明，在本文设定条件下，决策导向场景相较基准场景可使年度燃料消耗、运行成本和二氧化碳排放分别下降约3.55%、3.55%和3.55%。研究表明，即便采用简单透明的运行规则，只要置于统一的长期评估框架中，也能够为区域微电网规划、运行和政策比较提供有解释性的定量依据。

Abstract: This paper proposes a decision-oriented quantitative evaluation framework for regional microgrids, aiming to bridge the gap between short-term operational decisions and long-term planning-oriented performance assessment. The framework decouples system inputs, operational decision mechanisms, and performance evaluation layers, and maps operational behaviors into annualized indicators including cost, fuel consumption, and CO2 emissions. A three-generator diesel microgrid is used to demonstrate the framework under two scenarios: a baseline dispatch rule and a cost-priority decision-oriented rule. To enhance reproducibility, a verifiable numerical example is added based on explicit generator parameters, an annual load-duration curve, diesel price, and an emission factor. Under the adopted assumptions, the decision-oriented scenario reduces annual fuel use, operating cost, and CO2 emissions by about 3.55%, 3.55%, and 3.55%, respectively, compared with the baseline scenario. The study shows that even simple and interpretable operational rules can provide meaningful evidence for planning and policy decisions when embedded in a unified long-term evaluation framework.