基于阿尔兹海默症(AD)死亡率的ARIMA时间序列分析模型

ARIMA Time Series Analysis Model Based on Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) Mortality Rate

摘要: 随着全球老龄化趋势的加剧，阿尔兹海默症(Alzheimer’s Disease, AD)已成为威胁老年人健康的重大疾病之一。本文建立基于阿尔兹海默症(AD)死亡率的时间序列分析模型，通过对主要国家死亡率数据进行平稳性检验和差分处理，确定ARIMA模型参数，对未来5年的AD死亡率进行较为准确的预测，并给出置信区间，为公共卫生政策制定提供了科学依据。

Abstract: With the intensification of the global aging trend, Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) has become one of the major diseases threatening the health of the elderly. This paper establishes a time series analysis model based on the mortality rate of Alzheimer’s Disease (AD). Through stationarity test and difference processing of mortality data of various countries, the parameters of the ARIMA model are accurately determined, the AD mortality rate in the next 5 years is accurately predicted, and the confidence interval is given, which provides a scientific basis for the formulation of public health policies.