云南百年以来的气候变化特征及其驱动机制

Characteristics of Climate Change and Its Driving Mechanisms in Yunnan Province over the Past Century

摘要: 利用云南省昆明站点(56779)和腾冲站点(56739)过去百年的气象观测数据，选取其中的气温和降水量要素数据，采用趋势分析法、变差系数法和小波分析法等研究方法，研究了过去百年云南东部和西部的气候变化趋势特征以及周期变化，并比较云南东西部气候变化的异同，分析东西部气候变化的成因，探讨了云南百年以来的器测数据记录与区域气候指标的变化及对比。结论如下：1) 云南东部在过去百年的气候变化特征，气温和降水量的变化趋势都呈上升，年代际变化波动不大，在过去百年尺度上，年均温变化序列存在一个10a的周期，年降水量存在一个6a的主周期，其他周期分别为9a、21a、36a；2) 云南西部地区过去百年的气候特征，气温呈上升趋势，而年降水量则为下降趋势，气温和降水量的年代际变化小，在过去百年间，年均温变化序列存在一个12a的主周期，而降水变化序列存在一个4a的主周期；3) 太阳黑子活动与云南东西部气温、降水的变化呈现出一定的相关性，主要为负相关性。ENSO是最强年际旱涝变化的主导因子，而PDO主导年代际干湿变化，三者协同作用影响云南气候变化。

Abstract: Based on the meteorological observation data of the Kunming station (56779) and the Tengchong station (56739) over the past century in Yunnan Province, the temperature and precipitation data were selected. Using research methods such as trend analysis, coefficient of variation, and wavelet analysis, the climate change trends and periodic variations in the eastern and western parts of Yunnan over the past century were studied. The similarities and differences in climate change between the eastern and western parts of Yunnan were compared, the causes of climate change were analyzed, and the changes and comparisons of instrumental data records and regional climate indicators in Yunnan over the past century were discussed. The conclusions are as follows: 1) The climate change characteristics of Yunnan in the past century show that both temperature and precipitation have an upward trend, with little fluctuation in interdecadal changes. On a 100-year scale, the annual average temperature change sequence has a 10-year cycle, and the annual precipitation has a 6-year main cycle, with other cycles being 9 years, 21 years, and 36 years; 2) The climate characteristics of the western part of Yunnan in the past century show that the temperature has an upward trend, while the annual precipitation has a downward trend. The interdecadal changes in temperature and precipitation are small. On a 100-year scale, the annual average temperature change sequence has a 12-year main cycle, and the precipitation change sequence has a 4-year main cycle; 3) Solar sunspot activity shows a certain correlation with the temperature and precipitation changes in Yunnan in the east and west, mainly a negative correlation. ENSO is the dominant factor for the strongest interannual drought and flood changes, while PDO dominates the interdecadal dry and wet changes. The three factors work together to affect the climate change in Yunnan.