ENSO对极端水文事件的影响机制研究综述及展望
A Review and Prospect on the Impact Mechanisms of ENSO on Extreme Hydrological Events
DOI: 10.12677/jwrr.2026.152013, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 何 难, 尹家波*, 李佳瑞, 沈玎睿, 胡千棋, 金妍岑, 付 湘*：武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室，湖北 武汉
关键词: ENSO；极端水文事件；遥相关；物理机制；气候模型；ENSO； Hydrological Extremes； Teleconnection； Physical Mechanisms； Climate Models
摘要: 厄尔尼诺–南方涛动(ENSO)是全球年际尺度最强的海气耦合信号，通过调制大气环流和水汽输运，深刻影响干旱和洪水等极端水文事件的时空分布、强度及传播规律。本文综述了ENSO对干旱、洪水、洪旱转换等极端水文事件影响的研究进展，重点分析了区域响应差异、物理驱动机制、模型模拟能力及外部强迫干扰四个核心方面。研究发现，ENSO对极端水文事件的影响呈现显著的空间异质性，主要通过“海温异常–环流调整–水汽输运–对流变化”的链式耦合过程影响旱涝灾害；另一方面，ENSO类型、外部强迫和下垫面条件等多重因素也对旱涝灾害产生显著影响。尽管现有气候模型能捕捉到ENSO与极端水文事件的主导关联，但在区域精细响应和外部强迫干扰模拟等方面仍有不足，未来需重点关注ENSO指数标准化、多因子耦合机制、物理引导模型改进及长时序重建等工作，为极端水文事件精准预测和灾害风险管理提供科学技术支撑。
Abstract: El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest interannual air-sea coupled signal on the global scale, which profoundly affects the spatiotemporal distribution, intensity, and propagation of extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods by modulating atmospheric circulation and moisture transport. This paper reviews the research progress of ENSO impacts on extreme hydrological events including droughts, floods, and flood-drought alternation, focusing on four core aspects: regional response differences, physical driving mechanisms, model simulation capabilities, and disturbances from external forcing. It is found that the impacts of ENSO on extreme hydrological events exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, mainly through the chained coupling process of “sea surface temperature anomaly-circulation adjustment-moisture transport-convective variation” to influence droughts and floods; meanwhile, multiple factors such as ENSO types, external forcing, and underlying surface conditions also exert significant impacts on droughts and floods. Although existing climate models can capture the dominant correlation between ENSO and extreme hydrological events, there are still deficiencies in simulating fine-grained regional responses and disturbances from external forcing. Future work should focus on the standardization of ENSO indices, multi-factor coupling mechanisms, physically informed model improvements, and long-term reconstruction, to provide scientific and technological support for accurate prediction of extreme hydrological events and disaster risk management.
文章引用：何难, 尹家波, 李佳瑞, 沈玎睿, 胡千棋, 金妍岑, 付湘. ENSO对极端水文事件的影响机制研究综述及展望[J]. 水资源研究, 2026, 15(2): 97-106. https://doi.org/10.12677/jwrr.2026.152013

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