联合重力卫星与多源数据华北平原地下水储量演变机制及归因分析
Mechanisms and Attribution of Groundwater Storage Evolution in the North China Plain via Integrated Gravity Satellite and Multi-Source Data
DOI: 10.12677/jwrr.2026.152020, PDF,   
作者: 林友兵：华北水利水电大学地球科学与工程学院，河南 郑州
关键词: 地下水储量；GRACE卫星；华北平原；南水北调；驱动机制；Groundwater Storage； GRACE Satellite； North China Plain； SNWD； Driving Mechanism
摘要: 华北平原(North China Plain, NCP)作为全球地下水消耗最剧烈的区域之一，其水文系统的演变直接关系到中国的粮食安全与生态稳定。本研究基于Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)及其后续任务(GRACE-FO)的重力卫星数据，结合了与Mascon数据的空间尺度更为匹配的具有0.25˚高分辨率的GLDAS 2.1版本数据、ERA5再分析数据及TRMM降雨数据，构建了高精度的陆地水量平衡方程，对2002年至2024年间华北平原地下水储量的长序列变化特征进行了系统反演与归因分析。研究发现，该区域水储量变化在2020年经历了从持续亏损到显著恢复的结构性转折。Prophet模型识别出的“2020-08”变异点，对应了南水北调中线工程生态补水效应累积与区域治理政策落地的时刻。归因分析表明，降水(P)的年际波动与极端降水事件(如2021年河南暴雨)对短期储量回升具有显著贡献，但南水北调工程带来的水源置换效应及严格的地下水压采政策是驱动2020年后地下水长期恢复的主导人为因素。本研究验证了多源卫星遥感数据在区域尺度水资源管理中的应用潜力，并为华北平原地下水超采治理提供了科学依据。
Abstract: As one of the world’s most intensive zones of groundwater depletion, the evolution of the hydrological system in the North China Plain (NCP) directly impacts food security and ecological stability. Utilizing gravimetry data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, integrated with GLDAS 2.1, ERA5 reanalysis, and TRMM precipitation data—specifically selected for their 0.25˚ high resolution that aligns with the spatial scale of Mascon solutions, this study constructs a high-precision terrestrial water balance equation and systematically retrieves and conducts an attribution analysis of the long-term variations in groundwater storage (GWS) across the NCP from 2002 to 2024. Results indicate that GWS in the region underwent a structural shift in 2020, transitioning from a state of continuous depletion to significant recovery. The change point of “August 2020”, identified by the Prophet model, coincides with the cumulative effects of ecological water replenishment from the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project (SNWDP) and the effective implementation of regional governance policies. Attribution analysis demonstrates that while inter-annual fluctuations in precipitation (P) and extreme precipitation events (e.g., the 2021 Henan rainstorm) significantly contributed to short-term storage rebound, and the water source substitution effect facilitated by the SNWDP and strict groundwater extraction restriction policies were the dominant anthropogenic drivers of the long-term recovery observed after 2020. This study demonstrates the potential of multi-source satellite remote sensing data in regional-scale water resources management and provides a scientific basis for the governance of groundwater over-exploitation in the NCP.
文章引用：林友兵. 联合重力卫星与多源数据华北平原地下水储量演变机制及归因分析[J]. 水资源研究, 2026, 15(2): 167-176. https://doi.org/10.12677/jwrr.2026.152020

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