基于垂向混合产流模型的三河口水库洪水预报方案构建

Construction of Flood Forecasting Scheme for the Sanhekou Reservoir Based on a Vertical Mixed Runoff Model

摘要: 切实可行的入库洪水预报方案对水库防洪安全和科学调度管理具有重要作用，本文以子午河三河口水库以上流域为研究对象，采用垂向混合产流模型构建入库洪水预报方案，该模型在三河口水库以上流域具有良好适用性，能够较为精确地模拟入库洪水过程。率定期和检验期的确定性系数分别为0.852、0.924，洪峰流量和峰现时间合格率均达到85%以上，预报方案综合评定等级为甲等，可以用于发布正式洪水预报。

Abstract: A practical and feasible inflow flood forecasting scheme plays a crucial role in ensuring reservoir flood control safety and scientific operation and management. Taking the watershed above the Sanhekou Reservoir in the Ziwu River as the study area, this research developed an inflow flood forecasting scheme by employing a Vertical Mixed Runoff Model, which demonstrates good applicability above the Sanhekou Reservoir. The model can simulate the inflow flood process with considerable accuracy. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients reached 0.852 and 0.924 during the calibration period and validation period, respectively. The qualification rates for both peak discharge and time to peak exceeded 85%. The comprehensive rating of the forecasting scheme is classified as Grade A, indicating that it can be utilized for issuing official flood forecasts.