近30a云南省怒江州暴雨及其引发的洪涝灾害变化特征

Variation Characteristics of Rainstorms and Induced Flood Disasters in Nujiang Prefecture, Yunnan Province in the Past 30 Years

摘要: 本文通过云南省怒江州29个雨量代表站1990~2020年的暴雨数据资料，结合同一时期暴雨洪涝灾害纪实资料以及相关灾损指标(直接经济损失及其占GDP的比例、受灾人口分布及因灾死亡人数、农作物受灾面积等)，采用含障碍的样条函数插值和线性趋势分析法，分析近30a怒江州暴雨洪灾频次、年代时序变化特征以及暴雨洪涝灾害变化特征。结果表明：近30a，怒江州内日暴雨频次怒江流域呈下降趋势、澜沧江流域随年代推移呈现出一定的波动状态，近10a呈上升趋势；暴雨引发的洪涝灾害以中小尺度、损失程度相对较轻的一般洪灾和较大洪灾为主，兰坪县和泸水市是暴雨洪灾相对高发地区；怒江州为暴雨洪灾较为频发的区域，但受灾的频次有缓慢下降的趋势，各项灾害指标总体也呈减少趋势。本文的研究结果可为怒江州今后防洪减灾对策研究、暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估以及区划提供支撑。

Abstract: This study analyzes the frequency, temporal-spatial variation characteristics, and changes in storm flood disasters in Nujiang Prefecture, Yunnan Province, based on rainfall data from 29 representative rain gauge stations from 1990 to 2020, combined with corresponding disaster records and related damage indicators (direct economic losses and their proportion of GDP, distribution of affected population and disaster-related deaths, and area of crops affected). The analysis employs spline function interpolation with barriers and linear trend analysis methods. The results show that over the past 30 years, the frequency of daily heavy rainfall in the Nujiang River basin has exhibited a decreasing trend, while in the Lancang River basin, it has shown certain fluctuations over time, with an increasing trend observed in the last decade. Storm-induced flood disasters are primarily small to medium-scale events with relatively minor losses, and Lanping County and Lushui City are relatively high-frequency areas for such disasters. Although Nujiang Prefecture is a region prone to frequent storm flood disasters, the disaster occurrence frequency has shown a slow declining trend, and all disaster indicators have generally decreased. The findings of this study can provide support for future flood prevention and mitigation strategies, risk assessment, and zoning of storm flood disasters in Nujiang Prefecture.