基于多尺度评估的东江流域干旱指数适用性研究
A Study on the Applicability of Drought Indices in the Dongjiang River Basin Based on Multi-Scale Assessment
DOI: 10.12677/gser.2026.152039, PDF,    科研立项经费支持
作者: 黄 强, 王子妙, 林嘉耀：深圳职业技术大学材料与环境工程学院，广东 深圳
关键词: 干旱指数；适用性评估；多尺度；东江流域；Drought Index； Applicability Assessment； Multi-Scale； Dongjiang River Basin
摘要: 东江流域作为粤港澳大湾区的重要水源地，干旱事件频发，对水资源安全构成严重威胁。为评估不同干旱指数在该流域的适用性，本研究基于ERA5-Land再分析资料，选取物理机制类(scPDSI、HWPD)和标准化类(SPI、SPEI、EDDI、SESR、SSMI、SRI)共8类指数，从月尺度和侯尺度两个维度，综合运用相关性分析、事件识别、跨尺度一致性评价及水库实测数据验证等方法，系统评估各指数对气象、农业、水文、生态干旱的刻画能力。结果表明：标准化类指数在干旱演变与传播研究中适用性更优，SPEI和SESR能更有效捕捉气象干旱向土壤干旱的传播，EDDI对径流亏缺具有更直接的指示作用；水文/生态指数(SSMI、SRI、SESR)在长历时干旱监测中更具优势，与水库蓄水变化相关性最高，与1963年、2004年及2020~2021年三场历史干旱记录高度吻合。研究结果为东江流域干旱监测指数的优选与多尺度协同应用提供了科学依据。
Abstract: As an important water source for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, the Dongjiang River Basin is frequently affected by drought events, posing a serious threat to water security. To evaluate the applicability of different drought indices in this basin, this study selected eight types of indices, including physically-based indices (scPDSI, HWPD) and standardized indices (SPI, SPEI, EDDI, SESR, SSMI, SRI), based on ERA5-Land reanalysis data. From both monthly and pentad scales, the capability of each index in characterizing meteorological, agricultural, hydrological and ecological droughts was systematically assessed using correlation analysis, drought event identification, cross-scale consistency evaluation, and validation against reservoir observations. The results show that standardized indices exhibit better applicability in drought evolution and propagation studies, with SPEI and SESR more effectively capturing the propagation from meteorological to agricultural drought, and EDDI providing a more direct indication of runoff deficits. Hydrological/ecological indices (SSMI, SRI, SESR) show greater advantages in monitoring long-duration droughts, displaying the highest correlations with reservoir storage changes and showing strong agreement with the historical drought records of 1963, 2004, and 2020~2021. The findings provide a scientific basis for the selection of drought indices and their multi-scale synergistic application in the Dongjiang River Basin.
文章引用：黄强, 王子妙, 林嘉耀. 基于多尺度评估的东江流域干旱指数适用性研究[J]. 地理科学研究, 2026, 15(2): 404-418. https://doi.org/10.12677/gser.2026.152039

参考文献

[1] Dai, A. (2011) Drought under Global Warming: A Review. WIREs Climate Change, 2, 45-65. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[2] Mishra, A.K. and Singh, V.P. (2010) A Review of Drought Concepts. Journal of Hydrology, 391, 202-216. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[3] 张强, 韩兰英, 张立阳, 等. 气候变化背景下干旱研究的若干关键科学问题[J]. 地理科学进展, 2020, 39(4): 1-12.
[4] 珠江水利委员会. 2021年水资源公报[EB/OL].
https://www.pearlwater.gov.cn/zwgkcs/lygb/szygb/202212/t20221209_118220.html, 2022-12-09.
[5] Palmer, W.C. (1965) Meteorological Drought. US Weather Bureau, Research Paper, No. 45.
[6] Wells, N., Goddard, S. and Hayes, M.J. (2004) A Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index. Journal of Climate, 17, 2335-2351. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[7] McKee, T.B., Doesken, N.J. and Kleist, J. (1993) The Relationship of Drought Frequency and Duration to Time Scales. Proceedings of the 8th Conference on Applied Climatology, Anaheim, 17-22 January 1993, 179-184.
[8] Vicente-Serrano, S.M., Beguería, S. and López-Moreno, J.I. (2010) A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. Journal of Climate, 23, 1696-1718. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[9] Hobbins, M.T., Wood, A., McEvoy, D.J., Huntington, J.L., Morton, C., Anderson, M., et al. (2016) The Evaporative Demand Drought Index. Part I: Linking Drought Evolution to Variations in Evaporative Demand. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 17, 1745-1761. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[10] Somorowska, U. (2022) Amplified Signals of Soil Moisture and Evaporative Stresses across Poland in the Twenty-First Century. Science of the Total Environment, 812, Article ID: 151465. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[11] 申曼华, 黄领梅, 余小波, 等. 基于ERA-5数据集的陕西省气象-水文干旱传播与响应研究[J]. 干旱地区农业研究, 2025, 43(1): 258-266.
[12] Shukla, S. and Wood, A.W. (2008) Use of a Standardized Runoff Index for Characterizing Hydrologic Drought. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L02405. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[13] Wang, L. and Yuan, X. (2018) Two Types of Flash Drought and Their Connections with Seasonal Drought. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 35, 1478-1490. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[14] 陈雨昀. 东江流域人均水资源量仅为全国平均水平的三分之一[EB/OL]. 2019-01-23.
https://www.sohu.com/a/279928833_222493, 2025-08-26.
[15] Falkenmark, M., Lundqvist, J. and Widstrand, C. (1989) Macro-Scale Water Scarcity Requires Micro-Scale Approaches: Aspects of Vulnerability in Semi-Arid Development. Natural Resources Forum, 13, 258-267. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
[16] Wang, T., Tu, X., Singh, V.P., Chen, X., Lin, K., Lai, R., et al. (2022) Socioeconomic Drought Analysis by Standardized Water Supply and Demand Index under Changing Environment. Journal of Cleaner Production, 347, Article ID: 131248. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[17] Alduchov, O.A. and Eskridge, R.E. (1996) Improved Magnus Form Approximation of Saturation Vapor Pressure. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 35, 601-609. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[18] Allen, R.G., Pereira, L.S., Raes, D., et al. (1998) Crop Evapotranspiration: Guidelines for Computing Crop Water Requirements. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper, No. 56.
[19] Seneviratne, S.I., Corti, T., Davin, E.L., Hirschi, M., Jaeger, E.B., Lehner, I., et al. (2010) Investigating Soil Moisture-Climate Interactions in a Changing Climate: A Review. Earth-Science Reviews, 99, 125-161. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[20] Fisher, J.B., Melton, F., Middleton, E., Hain, C., Anderson, M., Allen, R., et al. (2017) The Future of Evapotranspiration: Global Requirements for Ecosystem Functioning, Carbon and Climate Feedbacks, Agricultural Management, and Water Resources. Water Resources Research, 53, 2618-2626. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[21] Otkin, J.A., Zhong, Y., Hunt, E.D., Christian, J.I., Basara, J.B., Nguyen, H., et al. (2021) Development of a Flash Drought Intensity Index. Atmosphere, 12, Article 741. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[22] Ford, T.W. and Labosier, C.F. (2017) Meteorological Conditions Associated with the Onset of Flash Drought in the Eastern United States. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 247, 414-423. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[23] Otkin, J.A., Zhong, Y., Hunt, E.D., Basara, J., Svoboda, M., Anderson, M.C., et al. (2019) Assessing the Evolution of Soil Moisture and Vegetation Conditions during a Flash Drought-Flash Recovery Sequence over the South-Central United States. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 20, 549-562. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[24] Liu, Y., Zhu, Y., Ren, L., Otkin, J., Hunt, E.D., Yang, X., et al. (2020) Two Different Methods for Flash Drought Identification: Comparison of Their Strengths and Limitations. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 21, 691-704. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[25] Wang, H., Zhu, Q., Wang, Y. and Zhang, H. (2023) Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Flash Drought Recovery: From the Perspective of Soil Moisture and GPP Changes. Weather and Climate Extremes, 42, Article ID: 100605. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] 
[26] Yuan, X., Wang, L., Wu, P., Ji, P., Sheffield, J. and Zhang, M. (2019) Anthropogenic Shift Towards Higher Risk of Flash Drought over China. Nature Communications, 10, Article No. 4661. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]

为你推荐