人口老龄化，人力资本对经济增长的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Population Aging and Human Capital on Economic Growth

摘要: 本文以人口老龄化，人力资本与经济增长的关系为研究对象，从老年人口的年龄分布视角进行深入探讨。随着全球人口老龄化的加速，老年人口在总人口中的比例逐年上升，给经济和社会发展带来了深远影响。但老年人口的年龄分布对于经济增长同样具有重要影响。本文通过构建三个面板模型，得出以下结论：首先，人口老龄化对经济增长有着复杂的非线性影响。随着老龄人口比例的增加，经济增长呈现倒U型关系，呈现“先增后减”的局面。其次，不同年龄阶段的老年人对经济增长的影响也存在差异。最后，人力资本在人口老龄化和经济增长中具有正向调节作用。提高老年人口的人力资本可以减轻人口老龄化对经济增长的负面影响，促进经济的可持续发展。

Abstract: This study examines the relationship between population aging, human capital, and economic growth through an in-depth analysis of age distribution patterns among the elderly population. With the accelerated global aging trend, the proportion of older adults in total population has been steadily increasing, exerting profound impacts on socioeconomic development. However, the age structure of the elderly population also significantly influences economic growth. Through constructing three panel models, the research reveals three key findings: First, population aging exerts complex nonlinear effects on economic growth. As the proportion of elderly individuals rises, economic growth follows an inverted U-shaped trajectory characterized by initial expansion followed by contraction. Second, the impact of different age groups within the elderly population on economic growth demonstrates distinct variations. Third, human capital plays a positive moderating role in the interplay between population aging and economic growth. Enhancing human capital among the elderly population can mitigate the negative effects of aging on economic development, thereby promoting sustainable economic growth.