人力资本视角下老龄化地区劳动力供给问题与对策研究——基于临沂市的案例分析

Research on Labor Supply Issues and Countermeasures in Aging Regions from the Perspective of Human Capital—A Case Study Based on Linyi City

摘要: 我国人口结构在近年来发生了深刻转变。临沂市作为山东省人口规模最大、面积最广的地级市，在改革开放以来的较长时期里，凭借丰富的劳动力资源与商贸物流枢纽的区位优势，实现了经济社会快速发展。然而，伴随人口转变进程的持续推进，在计划生育政策累积效应与青壮年持续外流的双重作用下，全市出生人口规模收缩，人口老龄化进程显著加快。由此引发的最为核心的问题在于劳动力供给的结构性短缺。劳动力减少不仅直接影响区域经济增长动能，更通过技能错配、产业适配性下降等衍生效应，对经济社会可持续发展形成深层制约。当前经济社会发展规律对临沂市劳动力资源提出数量与质量的双重需求，在本地劳动年龄人口持续缩减与新兴产业用工需求集中释放的叠加作用下，劳动力结构性短缺已成必然趋势，临沂市产业转型升级与民生福祉改善面临严峻挑战。

Abstract: The population structure in China has undergone profound changes in recent years. Linyi City, as the largest and most extensive prefectural-level city in Shandong Province, has achieved rapid economic and social development over a long period since the reform and opening up, thanks to its abundant labor resources and the location advantages of a commercial and logistics hub. However, as the process of population transformation continues, the cumulative effect of the family planning policy and the continuous outflow of young and middle-aged people have jointly led to a contraction in the birth population size and a significant acceleration in the aging process of the population. The most core issue arising from this is the structural shortage of labor supply. The reduction in the labor force not only directly affects the economic growth momentum of the region, but also, through derived effects such as skill mismatch and decreased industrial adaptability, poses a deep constraint on the sustainable development of the economy and society. The current laws of economic development place dual demands on the labor resources of Linyi City, namely quantity and quality. Under the combined effect of the continuous reduction of the local working-age population and the concentrated release of employment demands from emerging industries, the structural shortage of labor has become an inevitable trend. Linyi City is facing severe challenges in its industrial transformation and upgrading as well as the improvement of people’s livelihood and well-being.