中国与中亚五国重大事件对高技术产品国际贸易的影响——基于DID方法的实证研究

The Impact of Major Events between China and Five Central Asian Countries on High-Technology Product International Trade—An Empirical Study Based on DID Method

摘要: 本文以中国与中亚五国为研究对象，基于2003~2023年高技术产品贸易数据，将“一带一路”倡议视为准自然实验，运用双重差分(DID)、PSM-DID和安慰剂检验，系统考察政策冲击对双边高技术贸易规模、产品结构与质量升级的影响。研究发现，“一带一路”显著促进了中国与中亚五国高技术产品贸易增长，电子通信设备、电气机械和科学仪器是主要增长来源；政策效应主要通过政策沟通、设施联通和经贸技术合作等渠道发挥作用，并在一定程度上推动了产品质量提升和贸易结构优化；收入不平等则对政策效应存在抑制作用。本文为深化中国与中亚经贸合作、优化高技术产品贸易结构提供了经验依据。

Abstract: Using high-tech trade data for China and the Five Central ASIAN Countries from 2003 to 2023, this paper treats the Belt and Road Initiative as a quasi-natural experiment and applies DID, PSM-DID, and placebo tests to identify its effects on trade scale, product structure, and quality upgrading. The results show that the BRI significantly promotes high-tech trade between China and Central Asia, with electronic communication equipment, electrical machinery, and scientific instruments contributing most to the increase. The policy effect mainly operates through policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, and economic and technological cooperation, while also supporting quality improvement and trade structure optimization. Further evidence shows that income inequality weakens the sustainability of this positive effect. This article provides an empirical foundation for deepening economic and trade cooperation with Central Asia and for refining the trade structure of high-technology goods.