基于LMDI分解法的茶叶增产因素分解研究

A Study on the Decomposition of Factors Contributing to Tea Yield Increases Using the LMDI Method

摘要: 基于FAOSTAT数据库的中国茶叶产量、收获面积及单产数据，探究1961~2024年中国茶叶产量增长的阶段性演变特点。通过建立LMDI模型，将茶叶产量变化量分解为面积效应对总产量变化的贡献量与单产效应对总产量变化的贡献量之和，比较各个年份的面积效应与单产效应对茶叶产量总体贡献率，再将年份分阶段并分析茶叶产量变化量的阶段性演化规律。最终得到以下核心结论并分析模型结果得出结论：中国茶叶产量长期呈低平稳向高扩张演进趋势，增产动力经历“面积主导→单产主导→两者结合→面积主导”的过程，当前面积扩张仍是核心驱动。

Abstract: Using data on China’s tea production, harvested area and yield per unit area from the FAOSTAT database, this study investigates the key factors influencing the growth of China’s tea production and the characteristics of its phased evolution between 1961 and 2024. By establishing an LMDI model, the change in tea production is decomposed into the sum of the contribution of the area effect and the contribution of the yield effect to the change in total production. The overall contribution rates of the area effect and the yield effect to tea production are compared across different years. The years are then grouped into phases to analyze the phased evolution patterns of changes in tea production. The following key conclusions were ultimately drawn, based on an analysis of the model results: China’s tea production has long exhibited a trend of evolution from low-level stability towards high-level expansion; the drivers of production growth have undergone a process of “area-dominated → yield-dominated → a combination of both → area-dominated”, with area expansion remaining the core driver at present.