多种数值模式在黄石市分级降水预报中的检验评估

Verification and Assessment of Multiple Numerical Models in Graded Precipitation Forecasting for Huangshi City

摘要: 为提高数值预报产品在黄石地区的分级降水预报能力，选取11个代表站，对2024年1月至2025年9月期间，6家数值模式(EC、NCEP、CMA-GFS、CMA-SH9、CMA-MESO、CMA-GD)在黄石的预报准确率进行检验；选取81个区域站，对2024年13轮强降雨过程准确率进行检验。结果表明：(1) 逐月来看，1~3月多为稳定性降水，以小雨–中雨为主，EC和NCEP的72 h内准确率稳定，且评分最高；4~6月多暴雨，CMA-GD对72 h的大雨及以上量级降水准确率高于其他模式，CMA-MESO对24 h的暴雨量级降水准确率高于其他模式；7~9月，多局地短时强降水，CMA-GD的48 h内准确率高于其他模式。(2) 从过程来看，春季有6轮，其中中到大雨、局地暴雨占4轮，CMA-GD有3轮评分均最高；汛期有3轮暴雨到大暴雨，属典型梅雨期暴雨，模式评分最高均能达到0.7以上，预报偏差不大，但4轮局地暴雨及以上过程有3轮模式均未报出。

Abstract: To enhance the graded precipitation forecasting capability of numerical forecasting products in the Huangshi region, 11 representative stations were selected to evaluate the forecast accuracy of six numerical models (EC, NCEP, CMA-GFS, CMA-SH9, CMA-MESO, CMA-GD) in Huangshi from January 2024 to September 2025. Additionally, 81 regional stations were chosen to assess the accuracy of forecasts for 13 rounds of heavy rainfall processes in 2024. The results indicate that: (1) Monthly, from January to March, there is mostly stable precipitation, primarily in the form of light to moderate rain. EC and NCEP exhibit stable accuracy within 72 hours and achieve the highest scores. From April to June, heavy rainstorms are common, with CMA-GD showing higher accuracy for precipitation of heavy rain and above magnitude within 72 hours compared to other models. CMA-MESO achieves higher accuracy for precipitation of heavy rainstorm magnitude within 24 hours than other models. From July to September, there is often localized short-term heavy precipitation, with CMA-GD demonstrating higher accuracy within 48 hours than other models. (2) In terms of processes, there are six rounds in spring, including four rounds of moderate to heavy rain and localized heavy rainstorms, with CMA-GD achieving the highest scores in three rounds. During the flood season, there are three rounds of heavy to very heavy rainstorms, typical of the plum rain season. The model scores can reach above 0.7, with small forecast deviations. However, three out of four rounds of localized heavy rainstorms and above were not reported by any model.