我国省域新质生产力对城乡融合发展的影响研究

Research on the Impact of Provincial New Quality Productivity on Urban-Rural Integrated Development in China

摘要: 在高质量发展与乡村全面振兴协同推进背景下，新质生产力是推动城乡融合的关键动力。本文以2011~2024年30个省份面板数据为样本，探究新质生产力对城乡融合发展的影响，采用熵值法测度二者水平，通过马尔科夫模型预测城乡融合演进趋势，运用双向固定效应模型、门槛模型与空间杜宾模型开展计量实证分析。结果显示，我国城乡融合水平持续提升但呈东高西低梯度格局，且存在路径依赖；新质生产力对城乡融合具有显著正向促进作用，呈现单门槛边际递增非线性特征及正向空间溢出效应。异质性分析表明，东部驱动效应最强，西部次之，中部较弱；子维度中数字生产力赋能作用最突出，绿色与科技生产力亦有显著驱动效果。据此，本文结合研究结论提出相应政策建议。

Abstract: Under the circumstances where high-quality development and comprehensive rural revitalization are advancing simultaneously, new quality productive forces serve as the key driving force for the integration of urban and rural areas. This paper uses panel data from 30 provinces from 2011 to 2024 as a sample to explore the impact of new quality productive forces on the integration of urban and rural development. The entropy method is employed to measure the levels of both, and the Markov model is used to predict the evolution trend of urban-rural integration. The two-way fixed effect model, threshold model, and spatial Durbin model are utilized for quantitative empirical analysis. The results show that the level of urban-rural integration in China has continuously improved but presents a gradient pattern with higher levels in the east and lower levels in the west, and there is path dependence. New quality productive forces have a significant positive promoting effect on urban-rural integration, showing a marginal increase in a single threshold and positive spatial spillover effect. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the driving effect in the east is the strongest, followed by the west, and the central region is relatively weak. Among the sub-dimensions, the enabling effect of digital productive forces is the most prominent, and green and technological productive forces also have significant driving effects. Based on these findings, this paper proposes corresponding policy recommendations.