基于SWAP模型与长序列统计的邯郸市永年区农田耗水规律研究
A Study on Water Consumption Patterns in Farmland in Yongnian District, Handan City Based on the SWAP Model and Long-Series Statistics
摘要: 为揭示华北平原典型井灌区农田水循环要素的演变规律及互馈机制，本研究以邯郸市永年区为研究对象，利用SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant)模型重建了1965~2022年长达58年的农田水分运移过程。在此基础上，结合变异系数(CV)、Mann-Kendall检验和Spearman相关分析，定量解析了降雨(P)、灌溉(I)与耗水量(ET)的时空演变特征，量化了灌溉对降雨的补偿强度及高耗水模式的驱动力。本研究可为海河流域地下水超采治理及农业水资源刚性约束制度的建立提供长序列数据支撑，为区域水资源优化配置和农业种植结构调整提供更为严谨的科学依据。
Abstract: To elucidate the evolution patterns and feedback mechanisms of key components in the agricultural water cycle of a typical well-irrigated area on the North China Plain, this study focused on Yongnian District, Handan City, and utilized the SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant) model to reconstruct the agricultural water transport processes over a 58-year period from 1965 to 2022. Based on this, combined with the Coefficient of Variation (CV), Mann-Kendall test, and Spearman correlation analysis, this study quantitatively analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of Precipitation (P), Irrigation (I), and Evapotranspiration (ET), and quantified the compensatory intensity of irrigation on precipitation as well as the driving forces behind high-water-consumption patterns. This study provides long-series data support for addressing groundwater over-abstraction in the Hai River Basin and establishing a rigid constraint system for agricultural water resources, offering a more rigorous scientific basis for the optimal allocation of regional water resources and the adjustment of agricultural cropping patterns.
文章引用：刘冬冬. 基于SWAP模型与长序列统计的邯郸市永年区农田耗水规律研究[J]. 农业科学, 2026, 16(5): 727-734. https://doi.org/10.12677/hjas.2026.165090

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