超大城市商服设施适老性的精准识别与优化机制

Precise Identification and Optimization Mechanism of Age-Friendly Commercial Service Facilities in Megacities

摘要: 在快速老龄化背景下，如何实现商业服务资源的精准化识别与适老性治理，已成为超大城市城市服务体系建设的重要议题。然而，既有研究多依赖静态人口结构与二维供给指标评估设施配置状况，忽视了老年群体行为差异以及三维空间供给结构对服务效能的影响。为此，本文构建社区尺度的“3D供给–老年需求–空间匹配”分析框架：在供给侧建立建筑耦合熵模型刻画商服设施综合服务能力，在需求侧构建老年群体行为需求测度模型，并通过修正的空间耦合失衡度(ESDR)识别社区尺度供需格局。以广州为例的实证研究表明：广州社区适老商服体系呈现显著的梯度分化与结构性错位。核心区表现出明显的供给锁定特征，极度冗余比例高达76.3%，反映出资源过度集聚与利用效率低下的并存现状；战略新区正经历均衡瓦解的过程，约51.3%的街道呈现显著的“人口先行、服务滞后”特征；北部增长极在非工作日服务短缺比例仍高达52.6%，存在严重的资源孤岛现象。研究进一步揭示了超大城市公共服务配置中“形态-行为”之间的结构性错位机制，为城市在老龄化背景下推动公共服务体系由增量扩张向存量优化转型提供了新的量化工具，并为实现社区层面的适老性治理与服务均等化目标提供了精准化识别与分区治理的决策依据。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of rapid population aging, how to achieve refined identification of commercial service resources and age-friendly service optimization has become an important issue in the development of urban service systems in megacities. However, existing studies mostly rely on static population structures and two-dimensional supply indicators to evaluate facility allocation, ignoring the impacts of behavioral differences among older adults and three-dimensional spatial supply structures on service efficiency. To address this gap, this study constructs a community-scale analytical framework of “3D Supply-Elderly Demand-Spatial Matching”. On the supply side, a building coupling entropy model is established to characterize the comprehensive service capacity of commercial service facilities; on the demand side, a measurement model for behavioral needs of older adults is constructed; and a revised Spatial Coupling Disequilibrium Index (ESDR) is used to identify the supply-demand pattern at the community scale. An empirical analysis of Guangzhou shows that the community-level age-friendly commercial service system exhibits significant gradient differentiation and structural misalignment. The core urban area presents obvious supply lock-in, with an extremely redundant proportion as high as 76.3%, reflecting the coexistence of excessive resource agglomeration and low utilization efficiency. Strategic new development areas are undergoing a process of equilibrium breakdown, with approximately 51.3% of subdistricts showing a prominent pattern of “population agglomeration ahead of service provision”. The northern growth poles still suffer from a service shortage rate of 52.6% on non-working days, indicating a severe resource island effect. This study further reveals the structural misalignment mechanism between “spatial form and daily behavior” in public service allocation in megacities. It provides a new quantitative tool for cities to promote the transformation of public service systems from incremental expansion to stock optimization under aging pressures, and offers a refined identification approach and spatially differentiated planning support to achieve age-friendly community services and service equalization at the neighborhood level.