基于情景模拟的沥青路面工程碳排放预测研究

A Study on Carbon Emission Prediction for Asphalt Pavement Engineering Based on Scenario Simulation

摘要: 为研究沥青路面工程全生命周期碳排放特征及趋势，建立了建设阶段、养护阶段以及寿命终结阶段的碳排放计算模型，采用排放因子法对单位长度沥青路面工程的碳排放进行量化分析；耦合生命周期评价框架与LEAP模型，基于现有政策文件设置不同减排情景，预测不同情景下碳排放的变化趋势，根据分析结果对沥青路面工程提出减排对策。研究结果表明：沥青路面工程全寿命周期内建设阶段碳排放占绝对主导地位，其中材料生产环节占该阶段的92.24%；理想情景减排幅度可达56.9%，具有显著的减排效益。研究可为道路领域碳减排策略制定、中长期规划编制及行业绿色转型提供参考。

Abstract: To investigate the carbon emission characteristics and trends throughout the entire life cycle of asphalt pavement projects, emission calculation models were established for the construction phase, maintenance phase, and end-of-life phase. The emission factor method was employed to quantify carbon emissions per unit length of asphalt pavement projects. Integrating the life cycle assessment framework with the LEAP model, various emission reduction scenarios were set based on existing policy documents to predict carbon emission trends under different scenarios. Based on the analysis results, emission reduction countermeasures for asphalt pavement projects were proposed. The findings reveal that carbon emissions during the construction phase dominate the entire life cycle of asphalt pavement projects, with material production accounting for 92.24% of this phase’s emissions. Under the ideal scenario, emissions reductions could reach 56.9%, demonstrating significant mitigation benefits. This research provides valuable insights for formulating carbon reduction strategies in the road sector, developing medium-to-long-term plans, and advancing the industry’s green transformation.