金沙江下游梯级水库运行后水文情势变化分析—基于流量历时曲线的生态流量指标

Flow RegimeAlteration in the Lower Jinsha River after the Operation of Cascade Reservoirs—By Eco-Flow Metrics Based on Flow Duration Curve

摘要: 为评价金沙江梯级水库联合调度对下游的影响，以屏山水文站1951~2011年的实测逐日流量序列为基础，通过梯级水库联合调度运行模拟得到模拟调度逐日流量数据，采用基于流量历时曲线的生态流量指标法(eco-flow metrics)对比调度前后水文情势变化特征，分析金沙江梯级水库联合调度在长系列、丰平枯典型年以及自然四季中对生态水文过程的影响。同时对比通过变动范围法(Range of Variability Approach, RVA)分析水文情势得到的结果，讨论生态流量指标法的适用性。结果表明，金沙江梯级水库运行会对水库下游水文情势的产生较为显著的影响，主要体现在低流量以及枯水期的变化之上；生态流量指标和RVA在水文情势分析结果上具有一定的相似性，两者结合一起可以更好地分析水文情势的变化。

Abstract: To evaluate the flow regime change in the lower Jinsha River after the operation of cascade reser-voirs, the change characteristics of flow regime in different periods were evaluated based on ob-served daily flow series at Pingshan hydrological station from 1951 to 2011 and the scheduling simulation data from 2031 to 2091 by using the eco-flow metrics based on flow duration curve. Meanwhile, the applicability of eco-flow metrics to evaluate the flow regime was discussed and compared with the results of flow regime obtained by using Range of Variability Approach (RVA). The results show that the operation of cascade reservoirs will lead to a significant change in flow regime at Pingshan hydrological station, which is mainly reflected in low flow and changes in low flow period. The results of flow regime obtained by using eco-flow metrics and RVA have a certain degree of similarity. Therefore, combination of the two groups of metrics provides a sufficient measure of the changes in the flow regime.